Complete PENG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
PENG DCF Analysis
PENG (Penguin Solutions, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 3.3% | -18.8% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.4% |
| EBIT | $67.2M | $8.7M | $18.3M | $58.1M | $57.8M | $57.5M | $57.2M | $56.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | 4.8% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 42.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 33.5% | 32.7% | 31.8% | 31.0% | 30.1% |
| NOPAT | $38.6M | $6.6M | $13.7M | $38.7M | $38.9M | $39.2M | $39.5M | $39.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Capex | $20.4M | $39.4M | $19.4M | $24.0M | $22.7M | $21.4M | $20.2M | $19.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Depreciation | $46.7M | $71.6M | $65.7M | $54.0M | $53.7M | $53.4M | $53.1M | $52.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Change in NWC | $269.3M | $-155.2M | $59.0M | $53.6M | $42.6M | $33.9M | $27.0M | $21.5M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 19.3% | -10.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-204.4M | $193.9M | $1.1M | $15.0M | $27.3M | $37.2M | $45.3M | $52.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 194.9% | -99.5% | 1322.1% | 81.5% | 36.4% | 21.8% | 14.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -14.6% | 13.5% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.913 | 0.833 | 0.761 | 0.695 | 0.634 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $13.7M | $22.7M | $28.3M | $31.5M | $33.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $13.7M | $36.5M | $64.8M | $96.3M | $129.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 33.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.97 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.9% |
| Total Debt | $717.9M |
| Market Cap | $1.0B |
| Total Capital | $1.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 40.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 59.2% |
| WACC | 9.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $52.0M |
| Terminal Value | $757.8M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $480.6M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $129.3M |
| Net Debt | $334.7M |
| Equity Value | $275.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $20 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -73.5% |
Valuation Summary
$5.25
Implied Price
$19.77
Current Price
-73.5%
Upside/Downside
9.5%
WACC
PENG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-5.00
-125.3%
Peer Median: 48.3x
EV/EBITDA
$62.93
+218.3%
Peer Median: 35.2x
P/S Ratio
$64.56
+226.5%
Peer Median: 2.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PENG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PENG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -190.9x | 48.3x | 51.4x | -495.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6x | 35.2x | 26.9x | -58.5% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.8x | 2.6x | 4.1x | -69.4% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.0x | |
| $2.42B | 14.8x | 46.9x | 2.3x | |
| $2.28B | 89.2x | 11.5x | 1.7x | |
| $1.19B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 16.0x | |
| $1.06B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 2.9x | |
| $1.04B | 92.5x | 14.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.68B | 12.2x | 12.6x | 1.0x | |
| $0.56B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.4x | |
| $0.44B | 0.0x | 35.2x | 1.4x | |
| $3475.54B | 48.3x | 40.4x | 26.6x |