Complete AOSL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
AOSL DCF Analysis
AOSL (Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $777.6M | $691.3M | $657.3M | $673.7M | $688.9M | $702.9M | $715.8M | $727.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -11.1% | -4.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| EBIT | $102.0M | $22.5M | $-3.8M | $35.5M | $37.0M | $38.5M | $39.9M | $41.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 13.1% | 3.3% | -0.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| Tax Rate % | 7.9% | 30.1% | 25.0% | 18.9% | 19.5% | 20.1% | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| NOPAT | $93.9M | $15.7M | $-2.8M | $28.8M | $29.8M | $30.7M | $31.6M | $32.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 12.1% | 2.3% | -0.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% |
| Capex | $138.0M | $110.4M | $37.1M | $86.0M | $83.6M | $81.0M | $78.4M | $75.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 17.7% | 16.0% | 5.6% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Depreciation | $42.9M | $43.2M | $53.8M | $44.8M | $45.8M | $46.7M | $47.6M | $48.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Change in NWC | $109.2M | $-31.9M | $-7.6M | $2.5M | $2.1M | $1.7M | $1.4M | $1.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 14.0% | -4.6% | -1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-110.4M | $-19.6M | $21.5M | $-15.0M | $-10.1M | $-5.3M | $-584.6K | $4.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 82.2% | 209.4% | -170.0% | 32.7% | 47.7% | 88.9% | 783.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -14.2% | -2.8% | 3.3% | -2.2% | -1.5% | -0.8% | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.887 | 0.787 | 0.698 | 0.620 | 0.550 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-13.3M | $-8.0M | $-3.7M | $-362.3K | $2.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-13.3M | $-21.3M | $-25.0M | $-25.3M | $-23.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 18.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.08 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.4% |
| Total Debt | $67.2M |
| Market Cap | $677.9M |
| Total Capital | $745.1M |
| Debt Weighting | 9.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.0% |
| WACC | 12.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $4.0M |
| Terminal Value | $40.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $22.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $-23.1M |
| Net Debt | $-107.9M |
| Equity Value | $106.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 28.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $4 |
| Current Share Price | $23 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -83.4% |
Valuation Summary
$3.78
Implied Price
$22.78
Current Price
-83.4%
Upside/Downside
12.7%
WACC
AOSL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-37.05
-262.6%
Peer Median: 48.3x
EV/EBITDA
$32.46
+42.5%
Peer Median: 21.2x
P/S Ratio
$58.60
+157.3%
Peer Median: 2.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AOSL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AOSL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -29.7x | 48.3x | 46.7x | -161.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5x | 21.2x | 26.0x | -41.0% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.0x | 2.6x | 4.6x | -61.1% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.41B | 14.8x | 46.7x | 2.3x | |
| $2.28B | 89.1x | 11.5x | 1.7x | |
| $1.17B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 15.8x | |
| $1.06B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 2.9x | |
| $1.04B | 92.5x | 14.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.68B | 12.2x | 12.5x | 1.0x | |
| $0.56B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.4x | |
| $0.44B | 0.0x | 34.9x | 1.4x | |
| $0.35B | 23.1x | 21.2x | 13.5x | |
| $3476.76B | 48.3x | 40.4x | 26.6x |
AOSL Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-4.55
EPV per Share
$22.78
Current Price
-120.0%
Upside/Downside
8.6%
WACC: 8.6% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $-0.1B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-0.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $-4.55 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 90.5% |
| Debt Weight | 9.5% |
| WACC | 8.6% |