Complete AMBA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AMBA DCF Analysis
AMBA (Ambarella, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $337.6M | $226.5M | $284.9M | $301.0M | $316.4M | $330.9M | $344.5M | $357.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -32.9% | 25.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% |
| EBIT | $-74.3M | $-154.6M | $-126.6M | $15.1M | $15.8M | $16.5M | $17.2M | $17.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -22.0% | -68.2% | -44.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-55.7M | $-115.9M | $-94.9M | $11.3M | $11.9M | $12.4M | $12.9M | $13.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -16.5% | -51.2% | -33.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $15.1M | $12.0M | $0 | $9.0M | $8.9M | $8.9M | $8.8M | $8.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| Depreciation | $19.9M | $24.8M | $26.1M | $26.1M | $27.4M | $28.7M | $29.9M | $31.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.9% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Change in NWC | $43.7M | $-24.0M | $2.4M | $1.3M | $1.1M | $884.2K | $736.6K | $611.2K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 12.9% | -10.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-94.5M | $-79.1M | $-71.3M | $27.2M | $29.3M | $31.3M | $33.3M | $35.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 16.3% | 9.9% | 138.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -28.0% | -34.9% | -25.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.885 | 0.783 | 0.692 | 0.612 | 0.542 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $24.0M | $22.9M | $21.7M | $20.4M | $19.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $24.0M | $47.0M | $68.6M | $89.0M | $108.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.00 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.1% |
| Total Debt | $5.3M |
| Market Cap | $2.2B |
| Total Capital | $2.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.8% |
| WACC | 13.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $35.1M |
| Terminal Value | $341.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $185.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $108.0M |
| Net Debt | $-139.4M |
| Equity Value | $432.4M |
| Shares Outstanding | 41.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $10 |
| Current Share Price | $52 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -80.0% |
Valuation Summary
$10.47
Implied Price
$52.34
Current Price
-80.0%
Upside/Downside
13.0%
WACC
AMBA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-235.85
-550.6%
Peer Median: 84.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 40.4x
P/S Ratio
$42.14
-19.5%
Peer Median: 6.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AMBA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AMBA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -18.7x | 84.2x | 58.7x | -122.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 40.4x | 32.3x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 7.8x | 6.3x | 6.4x | 24.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.27B | 844.7x | 0.0x | 355.2x | |
| $4.11B | 0.0x | 318.8x | 6.3x | |
| $3.41B | 363.2x | 251.1x | 9.4x | |
| $3.31B | 276.1x | 30.7x | 3.6x | |
| $3.08B | 84.2x | 68.4x | 7.1x | |
| $2.22B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.8x | |
| $2.43B | 14.9x | 47.0x | 2.3x | |
| $2.23B | 87.4x | 11.2x | 1.7x | |
| $1.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 16.6x | |
| $1.06B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 2.9x | |
| $3479.20B | 48.3x | 40.4x | 26.7x |