Complete SYNA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
SYNA DCF Analysis
SYNA (Synaptics Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7B | $1.4B | $959.4M | $863.5M | $777.1M | $699.7M | $637.0M | $585.6M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -22.1% | -29.2% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -9.0% | -8.1% |
| EBIT | $350.4M | $154.3M | $-75.8M | $68.0M | $62.0M | $56.5M | $52.1M | $48.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | 20.1% | 11.4% | -7.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% |
| Tax Rate % | 20.2% | 41.6% | 25.0% | 27.4% | 27.2% | 26.9% | 26.7% | 26.5% |
| NOPAT | $279.8M | $90.1M | $-56.9M | $49.4M | $45.1M | $41.3M | $38.2M | $35.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 16.1% | 6.7% | -5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| Capex | $31.1M | $34.2M | $167.6M | $42.4M | $36.3M | $31.0M | $26.8M | $23.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.8% | 2.5% | 17.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| Depreciation | $147.5M | $157.8M | $109.2M | $90.7M | $81.6M | $73.5M | $66.9M | $61.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.5% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Change in NWC | $547.0M | $71.9M | $-126.8M | $22.9M | $16.5M | $11.9M | $8.7M | $6.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 31.4% | 5.3% | -13.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-150.8M | $141.8M | $11.6M | $74.7M | $74.0M | $71.8M | $69.6M | $67.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 194.0% | -91.9% | 546.6% | -1.0% | -2.9% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -8.7% | 10.5% | 1.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 11.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.913 | 0.834 | 0.761 | 0.695 | 0.635 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $68.2M | $61.7M | $54.7M | $48.4M | $42.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $68.2M | $129.9M | $184.6M | $232.9M | $275.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Tax Rate | 27.4% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.69 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.7% |
| Total Debt | $1.0B |
| Market Cap | $2.4B |
| Total Capital | $3.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 29.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 70.3% |
| WACC | 9.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $67.3M |
| Terminal Value | $983.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $624.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $275.7M |
| Net Debt | $145.4M |
| Equity Value | $754.7M |
| Shares Outstanding | 39.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $19 |
| Current Share Price | $63 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -69.8% |
Valuation Summary
$19.01
Implied Price
$62.91
Current Price
-69.8%
Upside/Downside
9.5%
WACC
SYNA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$360.56
+473.1%
Peer Median: 85.1x
EV/EBITDA
$43.58
-30.7%
Peer Median: 30.7x
P/S Ratio
$169.51
+169.4%
Peer Median: 6.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SYNA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SYNA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.9x | 85.1x | 65.9x | -82.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.9x | 30.7x | 28.8x | 53.0% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.3x | 6.3x | 5.8x | -62.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.12B | 0.0x | 318.8x | 6.3x | |
| $3.30B | 363.2x | 243.6x | 9.1x | |
| $3.24B | 276.1x | 30.7x | 3.6x | |
| $3.11B | 85.1x | 69.2x | 7.2x | |
| $2.26B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.9x | |
| $2.42B | 14.9x | 46.9x | 2.3x | |
| $2.28B | 89.1x | 11.5x | 1.7x | |
| $1.20B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 16.2x | |
| $1.06B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 2.9x | |
| $1.04B | 92.5x | 14.6x | 0.8x | |
| $3467.97B | 48.2x | 40.3x | 26.6x |
SYNA Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $4.24 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $36.95 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$59.34
Intrinsic Value
$62.91
Current Price
-5.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 4.24 = 95.31
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
95.31 × 36.95 = 3521.34
Step 3: Take square root
√3521.34 = 59.34
Graham Number Result:
$59.34
SYNA Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
4.24 × (8.5 + 2 × 11.8%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$4.24
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-29T00:00:00
Historical 3Y11.8%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$135.96
Intrinsic Value
$62.91
Current Price
+116.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 11.8%
SYNA Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$4.24
Latest 10-K • 2024-06-29T00:00:00
Historical 3Y11.8%
3-year earnings growth
11.8%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$4.24 × 11.8% = $49.98
$49.98
Fair Value
$62.91
Current Price
-20.6%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
14.9x
Current P/E
11.8%
Growth Rate
1.26
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Fairly Valued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
SYNA Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$42.09
EPV per Share
$62.91
Current Price
-33.1%
Upside/Downside
7.5%
WACC: 7.5% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.7B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $1.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $42.09 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 71.0% |
| Debt Weight | 29.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% |