Complete INDI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
INDI DCF Analysis
INDI (indie Semiconductor, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $110.8M | $223.2M | $216.7M | $270.9M | $338.6M | $423.2M | $529.0M | $661.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 101.4% | -2.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-118.1M | $-135.4M | $-170.1M | $13.5M | $16.9M | $21.2M | $26.5M | $33.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -106.6% | -60.7% | -78.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-88.6M | $-101.6M | $-127.6M | $10.2M | $12.7M | $15.9M | $19.8M | $24.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -80.0% | -45.5% | -58.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $7.6M | $12.8M | $14.3M | $16.8M | $19.9M | $23.7M | $28.1M | $33.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| Depreciation | $16.8M | $34.6M | $43.1M | $45.6M | $57.0M | $71.2M | $89.0M | $111.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 15.1% | 15.5% | 19.9% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| Change in NWC | $97.3M | $-181.6M | $190.9M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 87.9% | -81.4% | 88.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-176.7M | $101.9M | $-289.8M | $39.0M | $49.8M | $63.4M | $80.8M | $102.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 157.6% | -384.4% | 113.4% | 27.7% | 27.5% | 27.3% | 27.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -159.5% | 45.7% | -133.7% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 15.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.908 | 0.825 | 0.749 | 0.680 | 0.618 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $35.4M | $41.0M | $47.5M | $55.0M | $63.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $35.4M | $76.4M | $124.0M | $178.9M | $242.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.12 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.6% |
| Total Debt | $398.6M |
| Market Cap | $568.2M |
| Total Capital | $966.8M |
| Debt Weighting | 41.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 58.8% |
| WACC | 10.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $102.7M |
| Terminal Value | $1.4B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $855.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $242.4M |
| Net Debt | $124.3M |
| Equity Value | $973.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 182.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +82.8% |
Valuation Summary
$5.33
Implied Price
$2.92
Current Price
+82.8%
Upside/Downside
10.1%
WACC
INDI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-34.14
-1270.9%
Peer Median: 48.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 21.5x
P/S Ratio
$2.92
+0.0%
Peer Median: 2.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for INDI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | INDI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.1x | 48.1x | 53.0x | -108.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 21.5x | 22.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.6x | 2.6x | 4.5x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.28B | 89.0x | 11.4x | 1.7x | |
| $1.21B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 16.3x | |
| $1.07B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 3.0x | |
| $1.05B | 92.5x | 14.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.70B | 12.2x | 12.9x | 1.0x | |
| $0.57B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.4x | |
| $0.44B | 0.0x | 35.3x | 1.4x | |
| $0.35B | 23.4x | 21.5x | 13.6x | |
| $0.24B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $3459.92B | 48.1x | 40.2x | 26.5x |