Complete SKYT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SKYT DCF Analysis
SKYT (SkyWater Technology, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $212.9M | $286.7M | $342.3M | $427.8M | $527.5M | $638.2M | $758.6M | $887.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 34.6% | 19.4% | 25.0% | 23.3% | 21.0% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| EBIT | $-29.8M | $-14.8M | $6.6M | $21.4M | $26.4M | $31.9M | $37.9M | $44.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | -14.0% | -5.2% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-22.3M | $-11.1M | $4.9M | $16.0M | $19.8M | $23.9M | $28.4M | $33.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -10.5% | -3.9% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $15.4M | $8.6M | $11.3M | $19.3M | $22.6M | $26.0M | $29.3M | $32.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 7.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| Depreciation | $28.2M | $28.9M | $18.7M | $41.1M | $50.6M | $61.2M | $72.8M | $85.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 13.2% | 10.1% | 5.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-42.3M | $17.8M | $-24.4M | $-1.3M | $-1.3M | $-1.3M | $-1.2M | $-1.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -19.8% | 6.2% | -7.1% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $32.7M | $-8.6M | $36.8M | $39.1M | $49.1M | $60.5M | $73.1M | $87.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -126.2% | 528.8% | 6.4% | 25.5% | 23.1% | 20.9% | 18.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 15.4% | -3.0% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.854 | 0.729 | 0.622 | 0.531 | 0.453 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $33.4M | $35.8M | $37.6M | $38.8M | $39.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $33.4M | $69.2M | $106.8M | $145.6M | $185.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.44 |
| Cost of Equity | 19.3% |
| Total Debt | $76.8M |
| Market Cap | $434.3M |
| Total Capital | $511.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 15.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 85.0% |
| WACC | 17.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $87.0M |
| Terminal Value | $608.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $275.6M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $185.1M |
| Net Debt | $57.9M |
| Equity Value | $402.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 47.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $8 |
| Current Share Price | $9 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -6.0% |
Valuation Summary
$8.50
Implied Price
$9.04
Current Price
-6.0%
Upside/Downside
17.2%
WACC
SKYT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-8.47
-193.7%
Peer Median: 48.1x
EV/EBITDA
$6.25
-30.9%
Peer Median: 21.1x
P/S Ratio
$9.04
+0.0%
Peer Median: 1.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SKYT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SKYT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -51.4x | 48.1x | 44.0x | -206.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.7x | 21.1x | 24.6x | 64.0% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.3x | 1.3x | 3.0x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.06B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 2.9x | |
| $1.04B | 92.5x | 14.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.68B | 12.2x | 12.6x | 1.0x | |
| $0.56B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.4x | |
| $0.43B | 0.0x | 34.7x | 1.3x | |
| $0.35B | 23.0x | 21.1x | 13.4x | |
| $0.22B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.24B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 170.8x | |
| $3465.53B | 48.1x | 40.3x | 26.6x |