Complete CEVA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
CEVA DCF Analysis
CEVA (CEVA, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $134.6M | $97.4M | $106.9M | $106.7M | $106.5M | $106.3M | $106.2M | $106.0M |
Revenue Growth % | - | -27.6% | 9.8% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
EBIT | $4.2M | $-13.5M | $-7.5M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M |
EBIT Margin % | 3.1% | -13.8% | -7.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 35.0% | 34.0% | 33.0% | 32.0% | 31.0% |
NOPAT | $3.2M | $-10.1M | $-5.7M | $3.5M | $3.5M | $3.6M | $3.6M | $3.7M |
NOPAT Margin % | 2.3% | -10.4% | -5.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
Capex | $3.5M | $2.9M | $3.0M | $2.8M | $2.6M | $2.5M | $2.4M | $2.3M |
Capex / Revenue % | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
Depreciation | $7.6M | $4.9M | $4.1M | $5.2M | $5.1M | $5.1M | $5.1M | $5.1M |
D&A / Revenue % | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
Change in NWC | $-9.2M | $38.1M | $3.3M | $-1.3M | $-1.1M | $-839.0K | $-670.1K | $-535.4K |
NWC Change / Revenue % | -6.8% | 39.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
Unlevered FCF | $16.4M | $-46.2M | $-7.8M | $7.2M | $7.1M | $7.0M | $7.0M | $7.1M |
UFCF % Chg. | - | -381.9% | 83.1% | 191.7% | -1.2% | -0.5% | -0.0% | 0.4% |
FCF / Revenue % | 12.2% | -47.4% | -7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% |
Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.912 | 0.832 | 0.759 | 0.693 | 0.632 |
Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.5M | $5.9M | $5.3M | $4.9M | $4.5M |
Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.5M | $12.4M | $17.8M | $22.6M | $27.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
WACC Calculation | Value |
---|---|
Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
Tax Rate | 35.0% |
After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
Beta | 1.23 |
Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
Total Debt | $5.6M |
Market Cap | $547.7M |
Total Capital | $553.2M |
Debt Weighting | 1.0% |
Equity Weighting | 99.0% |
WACC | 9.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
---|---|
Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
Final Year FCF | $7.1M |
Terminal Value | $101.9M |
PV of Terminal Value | $64.4M |
Cumulative PV of UFCF | $27.1M |
Net Debt | $-12.9M |
Equity Value | $104.5M |
Shares Outstanding | 23.6M |
Implied Share Price | $4 |
Current Share Price | $23 |
Implied Upside/(Downside) | -80.7% |
Valuation Summary
$4.42
Implied Price
$22.90
Current Price
-80.7%
Upside/Downside
9.6%
WACC
CEVA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-2.81
-112.3%
Peer Median: 54.0x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 22.6x
P/S Ratio
$15.23
-33.5%
Peer Median: 3.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CEVA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
Multiple | CEVA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
P/E Ratio | -439.6x | 54.0x | 45.8x | -913.8% | Undervalued |
EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 22.6x | 27.9x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
P/S Ratio | 5.0x | 3.3x | 4.7x | 50.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
$1.24B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 16.7x | |
$1.28B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 3.5x | |
$1.10B | 92.5x | 15.2x | 0.8x | |
$0.83B | 12.2x | 15.8x | 1.2x | |
$0.73B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.3x | |
$0.55B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 5.0x | |
$0.52B | 0.0x | 40.9x | 1.6x | |
$0.37B | 24.6x | 22.6x | 14.3x | |
$0.18B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
$0.26B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
$3887.90B | 54.0x | 45.2x | 29.8x |