Complete CEVA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
CEVA DCF Analysis
CEVA (CEVA, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $134.6M | $97.4M | $106.9M | $106.7M | $106.5M | $106.3M | $106.2M | $106.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -27.6% | 9.8% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| EBIT | $4.2M | $-13.5M | $-7.5M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 3.1% | -13.8% | -7.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 35.0% | 34.0% | 33.0% | 32.0% | 31.0% |
| NOPAT | $3.2M | $-10.1M | $-5.7M | $3.5M | $3.5M | $3.6M | $3.6M | $3.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.3% | -10.4% | -5.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Capex | $3.5M | $2.9M | $3.0M | $2.8M | $2.6M | $2.5M | $2.4M | $2.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Depreciation | $7.6M | $4.9M | $4.1M | $5.2M | $5.1M | $5.1M | $5.1M | $5.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Change in NWC | $-9.2M | $38.1M | $3.3M | $-1.3M | $-1.1M | $-839.0K | $-670.1K | $-535.4K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -6.8% | 39.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $16.4M | $-46.2M | $-7.8M | $7.2M | $7.1M | $7.0M | $7.0M | $7.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -381.9% | 83.1% | 191.7% | -1.2% | -0.5% | -0.0% | 0.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 12.2% | -47.4% | -7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.913 | 0.834 | 0.762 | 0.696 | 0.635 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.5M | $5.9M | $5.4M | $4.9M | $4.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.5M | $12.4M | $17.8M | $22.7M | $27.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 35.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.23 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.5% |
| Total Debt | $5.6M |
| Market Cap | $523.2M |
| Total Capital | $528.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.9% |
| WACC | 9.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $7.1M |
| Terminal Value | $103.5M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $65.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $27.2M |
| Net Debt | $-12.9M |
| Equity Value | $105.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 23.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $4 |
| Current Share Price | $22 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -79.5% |
Valuation Summary
$4.49
Implied Price
$21.88
Current Price
-79.5%
Upside/Downside
9.5%
WACC
CEVA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-2.71
-112.4%
Peer Median: 52.1x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 21.8x
P/S Ratio
$14.96
-31.6%
Peer Median: 3.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CEVA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CEVA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -419.9x | 52.1x | 45.2x | -905.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 21.8x | 26.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.8x | 3.3x | 4.5x | 46.2% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.21B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 16.4x | |
| $1.22B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 3.4x | |
| $1.07B | 92.5x | 14.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.79B | 12.2x | 15.1x | 1.2x | |
| $0.72B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.3x | |
| $0.52B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.8x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 37.9x | 1.5x | |
| $0.36B | 23.8x | 21.8x | 13.8x | |
| $0.13B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.2x | |
| $0.25B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $3751.01B | 52.1x | 43.6x | 28.7x |