Complete DIOD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
DIOD DCF Analysis
DIOD (Diodes Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | $1.7B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.0B | $989.8M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -16.9% | -21.1% | -6.7% | -6.0% | -5.4% | -4.9% | -4.4% |
| EBIT | $408.2M | $250.6M | $50.5M | $160.4M | $151.9M | $144.8M | $138.8M | $133.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 20.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 13.5% |
| Tax Rate % | 14.3% | 17.0% | 18.9% | 18.6% | 19.2% | 19.8% | 20.5% | 21.1% |
| NOPAT | $349.8M | $207.9M | $40.9M | $130.7M | $122.8M | $116.1M | $110.4M | $105.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 17.5% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Capex | $211.7M | $150.8M | $73.0M | $96.0M | $85.7M | $77.0M | $69.6M | $63.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.6% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% |
| Depreciation | $127.8M | $137.3M | $137.1M | $102.4M | $96.3M | $91.1M | $86.6M | $82.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Change in NWC | $12.5M | $64.7M | $54.7M | $26.6M | $20.0M | $15.1M | $11.5M | $8.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $253.3M | $129.8M | $50.4M | $110.5M | $113.3M | $115.0M | $115.9M | $116.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -48.8% | -61.2% | 119.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 12.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.907 | 0.822 | 0.746 | 0.676 | 0.613 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $100.2M | $93.2M | $85.8M | $78.4M | $71.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $100.2M | $193.4M | $279.2M | $357.6M | $428.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Tax Rate | 18.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.30% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.42 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.5% |
| Total Debt | $91.7M |
| Market Cap | $2.7B |
| Total Capital | $2.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 3.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.7% |
| WACC | 10.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $116.3M |
| Terminal Value | $1.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $940.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $428.9M |
| Net Debt | $-217.0M |
| Equity Value | $1.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 46.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $34 |
| Current Share Price | $57 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -40.5% |
Valuation Summary
$34.17
Implied Price
$57.47
Current Price
-40.5%
Upside/Downside
10.3%
WACC
DIOD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$29.74
-48.3%
Peer Median: 54.0x
EV/EBITDA
$61.24
+6.6%
Peer Median: 15.8x
P/S Ratio
$123.49
+114.9%
Peer Median: 4.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for DIOD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | DIOD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 104.3x | 54.0x | 53.3x | 93.3% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6x | 15.8x | 24.1x | -13.8% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 2.0x | 4.3x | 5.8x | -53.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.36B | 363.2x | 247.8x | 9.2x | |
| $3.88B | 276.1x | 30.7x | 4.3x | |
| $3.35B | 91.7x | 74.6x | 7.7x | |
| $2.86B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 10.0x | |
| $2.65B | 16.2x | 51.0x | 2.5x | |
| $2.67B | 104.3x | 13.6x | 2.0x | |
| $1.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 16.6x | |
| $1.28B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 3.5x | |
| $1.10B | 92.5x | 15.2x | 0.8x | |
| $0.83B | 12.2x | 15.8x | 1.2x | |
| $3884.72B | 54.0x | 45.1x | 29.8x |
DIOD Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.55 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $38.69 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$21.90
Intrinsic Value
$57.47
Current Price
-61.9%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.55 = 12.40
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
12.40 × 38.69 = 479.58
Step 3: Take square root
√479.58 = 21.90
Graham Number Result:
$21.90
DIOD Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$10.69
EPV per Share
$57.47
Current Price
-81.4%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC: 8.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $10.69 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 96.7% |
| Debt Weight | 3.3% |
| WACC | 8.9% |