Complete NVDA Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 7 different methodologies
NVDA DCF Analysis
NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27.0B | $60.9B | $130.5B | $163.1B | $203.9B | $254.9B | $318.6B | $398.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 125.9% | 114.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $4.2B | $33.0B | $81.5B | $65.2B | $81.6B | $102.0B | $127.4B | $159.3B |
| EBIT Margin % | 15.7% | 54.1% | 62.4% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.0% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
| NOPAT | $4.2B | $29.0B | $70.6B | $61.5B | $75.3B | $92.1B | $112.7B | $137.8B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 15.7% | 47.6% | 54.1% | 37.7% | 36.9% | 36.1% | 35.4% | 34.6% |
| Capex | $1.8B | $1.1B | $3.2B | $7.0B | $8.3B | $9.9B | $11.7B | $13.9B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Depreciation | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $5.2B | $6.5B | $8.2B | $10.2B | $12.8B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-8.0B | $17.2B | $28.4B | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -29.6% | 28.2% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $11.9B | $12.3B | $40.9B | $59.7B | $73.5B | $90.5B | $111.2B | $136.7B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 2.8% | 234.0% | 46.0% | 23.1% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 22.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 44.2% | 20.1% | 31.4% | 36.6% | 36.1% | 35.5% | 34.9% | 34.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.881 | 0.775 | 0.683 | 0.601 | 0.530 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $52.6B | $57.0B | $61.8B | $66.9B | $72.4B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $52.6B | $109.6B | $171.4B | $238.3B | $310.7B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 5.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.11 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.6% |
| Total Debt | $10.3B |
| Market Cap | $3299.4B |
| Total Capital | $3309.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.7% |
| WACC | 13.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $136.7B |
| Terminal Value | $1267.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $671.3B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $310.7B |
| Net Debt | $1.7B |
| Equity Value | $980.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 24804.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $40 |
| Current Share Price | $135 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -70.8% |
Valuation Summary
$39.52
Implied Price
$135.22
Current Price
-70.8%
Upside/Downside
13.6%
WACC
NVDA Dividend Discount Model
NVDA dividend discount model based on historical dividend payments and projected dividend growth rates
DDM Method Selection
Model Assumptions
Historical 5Y CAGR: 25.7%
Cost of equity (risk-free rate + equity risk premium)
Valuation Result
$0.00
Intrinsic Value
$135.22
Current Price
-100.0%
Upside/Downside
Medium Confidence
Dividend History & Growth Analysis
| Period | Dividend per Share | YoY Growth | Growth Rate | Period Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025Q2 2024 - Q2 2025 | $0.04Current | $0.02 | +150.0% | TTM |
2024Q2 2023 - Q2 2024 | $0.02 | $0.00 | +0.0% | TTM Historical |
2023Q2 2022 - Q2 2023 | $0.02 | $0.00 | +0.0% | TTM Historical |
2022Q2 2021 - Q2 2022 | $0.02 | $0.00 | +0.0% | TTM Historical |
2021Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 | $0.02 | — | — | TTM Historical |
TTM Analysis
Average Growth Rate: +37.5%
TTM Methodology
This analysis uses Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) windows for consistent 12-month comparisons. Each period represents dividends paid over a rolling 12-month window ending on the same calendar date, eliminating partial fiscal year distortions and providing accurate growth rate calculations.
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
Error in calculation
Substitution:
Required return must be greater than growth rate for Gordon Growth Model
Result:
$0.00
NVDA Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$101.26
-25.1%
Peer Median: 34.3x
EV/EBITDA
$96.45
-28.7%
Peer Median: 27.3x
P/S Ratio
$34.67
-74.4%
Peer Median: 6.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NVDA's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NVDA Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.8x | 34.3x | 41.2x | 33.5% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.3x | 27.3x | 26.7x | 40.3% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 25.3x | 6.5x | 6.6x | 290.0% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3299.37B | 45.8x | 38.3x | 25.3x | |
| $1134.09B | 115.8x | 46.8x | 20.8x | |
| $179.91B | 81.0x | 30.0x | 6.5x | |
| $165.90B | 34.3x | 23.1x | 10.3x | |
| $160.51B | 14.8x | 12.6x | 3.8x | |
| $106.49B | 22.9x | 9.1x | 3.4x | |
| $106.55B | 68.5x | 27.3x | 11.4x | |
| $85.76B | 21.0x | 85.0x | 1.6x | |
| $51.83B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.0x |
NVDA Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.95 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $3.20 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$14.57
Intrinsic Value
$135.22
Current Price
-89.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.95 = 66.37
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
66.37 × 3.20 = 212.27
Step 3: Take square root
√212.27 = 14.57
Graham Number Result:
$14.57
NVDA Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
2.95 × (8.5 + 2 × 96.7%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$2.95
Latest 10-K • 2025-01-26T00:00:00
Historical 3Y96.7%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y90.0%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$595.83
Intrinsic Value
$135.22
Current Price
+340.6%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 96.7%
NVDA Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$2.95
Latest 10-K • 2025-01-26T00:00:00
Historical 3Y96.7%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y90.0%
5-year earnings growth
96.7%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$2.95 × 96.7% = $285.38
$285.38
Fair Value
$135.22
Current Price
+111.0%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
45.8x
Current P/E
96.7%
Growth Rate
0.47
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
NVDA Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 72.9 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 72.9 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$32.02
EPV per Share
$135.22
Current Price
-76.3%
Upside/Downside
9.2%
WACC: 9.2% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $72.9B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $794.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $794.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.8B |
| EPV per Share | $32.02 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 99.7% |
| Debt Weight | 0.3% |
| WACC | 9.2% |