Complete MXL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
MXL DCF Analysis
MXL (MaxLinear, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | $693.3M | $360.5M | $324.5M | $292.0M | $262.8M | $236.5M | $212.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -38.1% | -48.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $180.2M | $-38.2M | $-223.4M | $16.2M | $14.6M | $13.1M | $11.8M | $10.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | 16.1% | -5.5% | -62.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 28.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 23.1% | 23.3% | 23.5% | 23.7% | 23.9% |
| NOPAT | $129.4M | $-28.7M | $-167.5M | $12.5M | $11.2M | $10.1M | $9.0M | $8.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 11.5% | -4.1% | -46.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $52.4M | $19.8M | $23.4M | $14.6M | $12.5M | $10.7M | $9.1M | $7.8M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.7% | 2.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| Depreciation | $80.7M | $71.5M | $0 | $19.0M | $17.1M | $15.4M | $13.8M | $12.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.2% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Change in NWC | $25.3M | $43.9M | $-124.7M | $13.2M | $9.5M | $6.8M | $4.9M | $3.5M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 2.3% | 6.3% | -34.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $132.3M | $-20.8M | $-66.2M | $3.6M | $6.3M | $7.9M | $8.8M | $9.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -115.7% | -218.1% | 105.5% | 72.7% | 25.8% | 11.4% | 4.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 11.8% | -3.0% | -18.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.902 | 0.814 | 0.734 | 0.662 | 0.598 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $3.3M | $5.1M | $5.8M | $5.8M | $5.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $3.3M | $8.4M | $14.2M | $20.0M | $25.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 23.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.67 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.6% |
| Total Debt | $149.4M |
| Market Cap | $1.1B |
| Total Capital | $1.2B |
| Debt Weighting | 12.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 87.7% |
| WACC | 10.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $9.2M |
| Terminal Value | $112.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $67.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $25.5M |
| Net Debt | $30.8M |
| Equity Value | $62.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 83.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $12 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -93.9% |
Valuation Summary
$0.74
Implied Price
$12.27
Current Price
-93.9%
Upside/Downside
10.8%
WACC
MXL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-220.32
-1894.9%
Peer Median: 84.4x
EV/EBITDA
$1.80
-85.3%
Peer Median: 14.6x
P/S Ratio
$12.27
+0.0%
Peer Median: 2.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MXL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MXL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.7x | 84.4x | 56.9x | -105.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 102.1x | 14.6x | 25.1x | 600.0% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.9x | 2.9x | 4.7x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3.08B | 84.4x | 68.6x | 7.1x | |
| $2.28B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.0x | |
| $2.41B | 14.7x | 46.6x | 2.3x | |
| $2.28B | 89.3x | 11.5x | 1.7x | |
| $1.18B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 15.9x | |
| $1.06B | 0.0x | 99.1x | 2.9x | |
| $1.04B | 92.5x | 14.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.68B | 12.2x | 12.6x | 1.0x | |
| $0.56B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.6x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.4x | |
| $3465.53B | 48.1x | 40.3x | 26.6x |