Complete UCTT Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
UCTT DCF Analysis
UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.7B | $2.9B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -26.9% | 20.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| EBIT | $199.6M | $35.2M | $91.2M | $113.2M | $121.9M | $132.3M | $142.7M | $152.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | 8.4% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| Tax Rate % | 42.9% | 25.0% | 48.7% | 30.8% | 30.2% | 29.6% | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| NOPAT | $113.9M | $26.4M | $46.8M | $78.3M | $85.1M | $93.1M | $101.2M | $109.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 4.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $100.1M | $75.8M | $63.5M | $77.1M | $78.5M | $79.4M | $79.7M | $79.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Depreciation | $72.3M | $61.7M | $76.1M | $77.2M | $82.7M | $88.0M | $93.1M | $97.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Change in NWC | $41.6M | $-126.4M | $51.3M | $-17.5M | $-15.0M | $-12.8M | $-10.8M | $-9.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 1.8% | -7.3% | 2.4% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $44.5M | $138.7M | $8.1M | $95.8M | $104.2M | $114.5M | $125.3M | $136.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 211.6% | -94.1% | 1080.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 1.9% | 8.0% | 0.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.910 | 0.828 | 0.753 | 0.685 | 0.623 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $87.2M | $86.3M | $86.2M | $85.8M | $85.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $87.2M | $173.4M | $259.6M | $345.4M | $430.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 30.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.05 |
| Cost of Equity | 13.1% |
| Total Debt | $660.3M |
| Market Cap | $1.1B |
| Total Capital | $1.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 37.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 62.2% |
| WACC | 9.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $136.7M |
| Terminal Value | $1.9B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.2B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $430.6M |
| Net Debt | $346.4M |
| Equity Value | $1.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 45.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $28 |
| Current Share Price | $24 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +15.4% |
Valuation Summary
$27.82
Implied Price
$24.11
Current Price
+15.4%
Upside/Downside
9.9%
WACC
UCTT Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$12.23
-49.3%
Peer Median: 19.6x
EV/EBITDA
$55.26
+129.2%
Peer Median: 14.6x
P/S Ratio
$111.74
+363.5%
Peer Median: 2.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for UCTT's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | UCTT Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.7x | 19.6x | 23.5x | 97.2% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4x | 14.6x | 14.2x | -42.5% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 2.4x | 2.9x | -78.4% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.72B | 50.7x | 22.2x | 3.6x | |
| $2.31B | 13.1x | 10.8x | 2.4x | |
| $1.69B | 16.7x | 8.5x | 2.1x | |
| $1.20B | 8.4x | 1.7x | 1.4x | |
| $1.25B | 19.6x | 16.2x | 1.8x | |
| $1.09B | 38.7x | 8.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 14.6x | 2.4x | |
| $0.86B | 202.5x | 99.1x | 4.7x | |
| $0.73B | 0.0x | 29.0x | 0.8x | |
| $0.42B | 18.4x | 196.9x | 6.8x | |
| $147.84B | 22.2x | 16.7x | 5.3x |
UCTT Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.62 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $19.28 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$16.44
Intrinsic Value
$24.11
Current Price
-31.8%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.62 = 14.02
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
14.02 × 19.28 = 270.35
Step 3: Take square root
√270.35 = 16.44
Graham Number Result:
$16.44
UCTT Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$7.55
EPV per Share
$24.11
Current Price
-68.7%
Upside/Downside
6.9%
WACC: 6.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 6.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $7.55 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 62.3% |
| Debt Weight | 37.7% |
| WACC | 6.9% |