Complete ICHR Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ICHR DCF Analysis
ICHR (Ichor Holdings, Ltd.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $811.1M | $849.0M | $816.9M | $789.1M | $764.9M | $743.8M | $725.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -36.6% | 4.7% | -3.8% | -3.4% | -3.1% | -2.8% | -2.5% |
| EBIT | $85.8M | $-10.9M | $-7.6M | $40.8M | $39.5M | $38.2M | $37.2M | $36.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 6.7% | -1.3% | -0.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 3.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| NOPAT | $82.9M | $-8.2M | $-5.7M | $36.2M | $34.4M | $32.8M | $31.4M | $30.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 6.5% | -1.0% | -0.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Capex | $29.4M | $15.5M | $17.6M | $15.2M | $14.0M | $12.9M | $11.9M | $11.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Depreciation | $35.1M | $34.6M | $30.7M | $28.9M | $28.0M | $27.1M | $26.3M | $25.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Change in NWC | $92.7M | $-44.8M | $14.5M | $-6.2M | $-4.8M | $-3.7M | $-2.9M | $-2.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 7.2% | -5.5% | 1.7% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-4.1M | $55.7M | $-7.2M | $56.1M | $53.2M | $50.8M | $48.8M | $47.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 1462.6% | -112.9% | 882.2% | -5.2% | -4.5% | -3.9% | -3.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -0.3% | 6.9% | -0.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.904 | 0.817 | 0.739 | 0.668 | 0.603 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $50.7M | $43.4M | $37.5M | $32.6M | $28.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $50.7M | $94.1M | $131.6M | $164.2M | $192.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 11.4% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.26% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.75 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.9% |
| Total Debt | $174.2M |
| Market Cap | $662.9M |
| Total Capital | $837.2M |
| Debt Weighting | 20.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 79.2% |
| WACC | 10.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $47.1M |
| Terminal Value | $593.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $358.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $192.6M |
| Net Debt | $65.5M |
| Equity Value | $485.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 32.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $15 |
| Current Share Price | $19 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -23.8% |
Valuation Summary
$14.81
Implied Price
$19.43
Current Price
-23.8%
Upside/Downside
10.6%
WACC
ICHR Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-9.23
-147.5%
Peer Median: 19.2x
EV/EBITDA
$12.67
-34.8%
Peer Median: 15.8x
P/S Ratio
$59.84
+208.0%
Peer Median: 2.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ICHR's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ICHR Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -40.3x | 19.2x | 20.3x | -310.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.7x | 15.8x | 13.9x | 68.5% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.7x | 2.3x | 2.8x | -67.5% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.12B | 7.9x | 1.5x | 1.3x | |
| $1.22B | 19.2x | 15.8x | 1.7x | |
| $1.02B | 36.4x | 8.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.89B | 0.0x | 14.6x | 2.3x | |
| $0.81B | 190.1x | 92.4x | 4.4x | |
| $0.66B | 0.0x | 26.7x | 0.7x | |
| $0.37B | 16.2x | 171.6x | 6.0x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1254.8x | |
| $146.08B | 22.0x | 16.5x | 5.2x |