Complete PDFS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
PDFS DCF Analysis
PDFS (PDF Solutions, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $148.5M | $165.8M | $179.5M | $208.4M | $238.7M | $269.9M | $301.7M | $333.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 11.6% | 8.2% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.6% |
| EBIT | $-2.1M | $-1.1M | $935.0K | $10.4M | $11.9M | $13.5M | $15.1M | $16.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -1.4% | -0.7% | 0.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 50.0% | 36.2% | 38.3% | 34.9% | 33.9% | 32.9% | 31.9% | 30.9% |
| NOPAT | $-1.0M | $-721.9K | $576.6K | $6.8M | $7.9M | $9.1M | $10.3M | $11.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -0.7% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Capex | $8.6M | $11.5M | $17.2M | $14.1M | $15.3M | $16.5M | $17.5M | $18.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| Depreciation | $9.0M | $8.5M | $6.9M | $10.4M | $12.0M | $13.5M | $15.1M | $16.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-9.5M | $11.8M | $-1.6M | $-2.5M | $-2.3M | $-2.1M | $-1.8M | $-1.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -6.4% | 7.1% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $8.9M | $-15.5M | $-8.2M | $5.6M | $6.8M | $8.2M | $9.7M | $11.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -274.5% | 47.3% | 169.0% | 20.8% | 20.2% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 6.0% | -9.3% | -4.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.906 | 0.821 | 0.744 | 0.674 | 0.611 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $5.1M | $5.6M | $6.1M | $6.6M | $7.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $5.1M | $10.7M | $16.8M | $23.3M | $30.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 34.9% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.42 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.4% |
| Total Debt | $5.2M |
| Market Cap | $865.8M |
| Total Capital | $870.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.4% |
| WACC | 10.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $11.5M |
| Terminal Value | $150.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $91.8M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $30.4M |
| Net Debt | $-85.4M |
| Equity Value | $207.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 39.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $5 |
| Current Share Price | $22 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -76.0% |
Valuation Summary
$5.32
Implied Price
$22.12
Current Price
-76.0%
Upside/Downside
10.3%
WACC
PDFS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$2.15
-90.3%
Peer Median: 19.7x
EV/EBITDA
$2.93
-86.8%
Peer Median: 14.6x
P/S Ratio
$10.07
-54.5%
Peer Median: 2.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PDFS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PDFS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 202.7x | 19.7x | 20.8x | 930.2% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 99.2x | 14.6x | 13.6x | 581.2% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.7x | 2.1x | 2.9x | 119.6% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.70B | 16.8x | 8.6x | 2.1x | |
| $1.21B | 8.5x | 1.8x | 1.4x | |
| $1.25B | 19.7x | 16.2x | 1.8x | |
| $1.09B | 38.8x | 8.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 14.6x | 2.4x | |
| $0.87B | 202.7x | 99.2x | 4.7x | |
| $0.72B | 0.0x | 28.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.42B | 18.5x | 198.7x | 6.9x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1277.6x | |
| $148.11B | 22.3x | 16.7x | 5.3x |
PDFS Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.11 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $6.30 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$3.93
Intrinsic Value
$22.12
Current Price
-82.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.11 = 2.46
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
2.46 × 6.30 = 15.47
Step 3: Take square root
√15.47 = 3.93
Graham Number Result:
$3.93
PDFS Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.11 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.11
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$2.67
Intrinsic Value
$22.12
Current Price
-87.9%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
PDFS Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.11
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.11 × 10.0% = $1.09
$1.09
Fair Value
$22.12
Current Price
-95.1%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
202.7x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
20.27
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
PDFS Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$1.16
EPV per Share
$22.12
Current Price
-94.8%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC: 9.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $1.16 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 99.4% |
| Debt Weight | 0.6% |
| WACC | 9.0% |