Complete FORM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
FORM DCF Analysis
FORM (FormFactor, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $747.9M | $663.1M | $763.6M | $788.0M | $810.6M | $831.6M | $850.9M | $868.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -11.3% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| EBIT | $54.9M | $82.8M | $64.8M | $74.3M | $77.3M | $80.1M | $82.8M | $85.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 7.3% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 12.3% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 15.2% | 16.6% |
| NOPAT | $48.1M | $76.4M | $56.8M | $66.2M | $67.7M | $69.1M | $70.2M | $71.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 6.4% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% |
| Capex | $65.3M | $56.0M | $38.4M | $61.3M | $59.9M | $58.4M | $56.8M | $55.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% |
| Depreciation | $46.2M | $44.8M | $39.7M | $47.6M | $49.0M | $50.3M | $51.4M | $52.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Change in NWC | $-50.4M | $117.8M | $31.1M | $5.7M | $4.7M | $3.8M | $3.2M | $2.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -6.7% | 17.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $79.5M | $-52.6M | $27.0M | $46.8M | $52.1M | $57.1M | $61.8M | $66.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -166.2% | 151.2% | 73.6% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 10.6% | -7.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.917 | 0.841 | 0.771 | 0.707 | 0.648 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $42.9M | $43.8M | $44.0M | $43.7M | $42.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $42.9M | $86.7M | $130.8M | $174.4M | $217.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Tax Rate | 11.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.11 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| Total Debt | $39.2M |
| Market Cap | $2.7B |
| Total Capital | $2.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.6% |
| WACC | 9.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $66.2M |
| Terminal Value | $1.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $669.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $217.3M |
| Net Debt | $-151.5M |
| Equity Value | $1.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 78.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $13 |
| Current Share Price | $35 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -61.9% |
Valuation Summary
$13.24
Implied Price
$34.74
Current Price
-61.9%
Upside/Downside
9.1%
WACC
FORM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$15.49
-55.4%
Peer Median: 22.2x
EV/EBITDA
$24.63
-29.1%
Peer Median: 16.4x
P/S Ratio
$23.52
-32.3%
Peer Median: 2.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FORM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FORM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.9x | 22.2x | 24.9x | 124.3% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.8x | 16.4x | 14.2x | 33.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.5x | 2.4x | 2.8x | 47.7% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.20B | 39.5x | 17.0x | 3.8x | |
| $6.65B | 29.6x | 16.4x | 1.8x | |
| $5.31B | 37.1x | 24.2x | 3.7x | |
| $4.98B | 23.0x | 18.8x | 4.9x | |
| $5.21B | 16.5x | 5.1x | 0.8x | |
| $2.68B | 49.9x | 21.8x | 3.5x | |
| $2.27B | 12.8x | 10.6x | 2.4x | |
| $1.65B | 16.3x | 8.3x | 2.1x | |
| $1.13B | 8.0x | 1.5x | 1.3x | |
| $1.23B | 19.3x | 16.0x | 1.7x | |
| $148.01B | 22.2x | 16.7x | 5.3x |
FORM Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.70 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $12.08 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$13.76
Intrinsic Value
$34.74
Current Price
-60.4%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.70 = 15.67
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
15.67 × 12.08 = 189.32
Step 3: Take square root
√189.32 = 13.76
Graham Number Result:
$13.76
FORM Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.70 × (8.5 + 2 × 11.6%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.70
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
Historical 5Y11.6%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$22.07
Intrinsic Value
$34.74
Current Price
-36.5%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 11.6%
FORM Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$9.89
EPV per Share
$34.74
Current Price
-71.5%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC: 9.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $9.89 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.6% |
| Debt Weight | 1.4% |
| WACC | 9.0% |