Complete VECO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
VECO DCF Analysis
VECO (Veeco Instruments Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $646.1M | $666.4M | $717.3M | $781.8M | $845.1M | $906.7M | $966.1M | $1.0B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 3.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% |
| EBIT | $60.3M | $69.9M | $67.0M | $76.0M | $83.0M | $90.0M | $96.8M | $103.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 16.0% |
| NOPAT | $60.3M | $52.5M | $67.0M | $68.4M | $73.5M | $78.3M | $82.8M | $87.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% |
| Capex | $24.6M | $27.9M | $18.1M | $29.7M | $30.5M | $31.1M | $31.5M | $31.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| Depreciation | $25.6M | $25.0M | $25.1M | $29.2M | $31.6M | $33.9M | $36.1M | $38.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Change in NWC | $50.8M | $77.2M | $84.0M | $30.7M | $26.6M | $22.8M | $19.5M | $16.5M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 7.9% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $10.5M | $-27.8M | $-10.0M | $37.2M | $48.0M | $58.3M | $68.0M | $77.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -363.8% | 64.0% | 472.3% | 29.0% | 21.4% | 16.7% | 13.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 1.6% | -4.2% | -1.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.850 | 0.784 | 0.723 | 0.666 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $34.3M | $40.8M | $45.7M | $49.1M | $51.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $34.3M | $75.1M | $120.8M | $169.9M | $221.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 10.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.29% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.10 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| Total Debt | $314.3M |
| Market Cap | $1.2B |
| Total Capital | $1.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 20.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 79.6% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $77.1M |
| Terminal Value | $1.3B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $883.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $221.3M |
| Net Debt | $168.7M |
| Equity Value | $935.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 61.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $15 |
| Current Share Price | $20 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -25.7% |
Valuation Summary
$15.19
Implied Price
$20.45
Current Price
-25.7%
Upside/Downside
8.5%
WACC
VECO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$20.45
+0.0%
Peer Median: 19.3x
EV/EBITDA
$21.23
+3.8%
Peer Median: 14.6x
P/S Ratio
$24.41
+19.3%
Peer Median: 2.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for VECO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | VECO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.3x | 19.3x | 22.7x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0x | 14.6x | 12.9x | 9.6% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 1.7x | 2.1x | 2.3x | -16.2% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5.20B | 16.5x | 5.1x | 0.8x | |
| $2.68B | 49.9x | 21.8x | 3.5x | |
| $2.26B | 12.8x | 10.5x | 2.4x | |
| $1.65B | 16.3x | 8.3x | 2.1x | |
| $1.13B | 8.0x | 1.5x | 1.3x | |
| $1.23B | 19.3x | 16.0x | 1.7x | |
| $1.02B | 36.4x | 8.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.90B | 0.0x | 14.6x | 2.3x | |
| $0.82B | 192.2x | 93.5x | 4.4x | |
| $0.67B | 0.0x | 26.9x | 0.8x | |
| $148.01B | 22.2x | 16.7x | 5.3x |
VECO Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.06 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $12.51 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$17.27
Intrinsic Value
$20.45
Current Price
-15.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.06 = 23.83
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
23.83 × 12.51 = 298.25
Step 3: Take square root
√298.25 = 17.27
Graham Number Result:
$17.27
VECO Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.06 × (8.5 + 2 × 33.8%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.06
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y33.8%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$80.65
Intrinsic Value
$20.45
Current Price
+294.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 33.8%
VECO Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.06
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y33.8%
3-year earnings growth
33.8%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.06 × 33.8% = $35.82
$35.82
Fair Value
$20.45
Current Price
+75.2%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
19.3x
Current P/E
33.8%
Growth Rate
0.57
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
VECO Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$15.07
EPV per Share
$20.45
Current Price
-26.3%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC: 7.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $15.07 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 80.0% |
| Debt Weight | 20.0% |
| WACC | 7.9% |