Complete COHU Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
COHU DCF Analysis
COHU (Cohu, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $812.8M | $636.3M | $401.8M | $361.6M | $325.4M | $292.9M | $263.6M | $237.2M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -21.7% | -36.9% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $125.6M | $43.3M | $-71.7M | $18.1M | $16.3M | $14.6M | $13.2M | $11.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | 15.4% | 6.8% | -17.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 23.6% | 38.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $96.0M | $26.6M | $-53.8M | $13.6M | $12.2M | $11.0M | $9.9M | $8.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 11.8% | 4.2% | -13.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $14.8M | $16.1M | $10.6M | $8.2M | $7.0M | $6.0M | $5.1M | $4.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Depreciation | $46.0M | $49.7M | $52.5M | $32.0M | $28.8M | $25.9M | $23.3M | $21.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.7% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Change in NWC | $45.6M | $-68.6M | $-86.3M | $10.2M | $7.3M | $5.3M | $3.8M | $2.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 5.6% | -10.8% | -21.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $81.6M | $128.9M | $74.4M | $27.2M | $26.7M | $25.7M | $24.3M | $22.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 58.0% | -42.3% | -63.4% | -1.9% | -3.9% | -5.3% | -6.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 10.0% | 20.3% | 18.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.912 | 0.832 | 0.759 | 0.693 | 0.632 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $24.9M | $22.2M | $19.5M | $16.8M | $14.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $24.9M | $47.1M | $66.6M | $83.4M | $97.8M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.30% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.25 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | $18.7M |
| Market Cap | $954.2M |
| Total Capital | $972.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.1% |
| WACC | 9.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $22.8M |
| Terminal Value | $328.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $207.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $97.8M |
| Net Debt | $-187.7M |
| Equity Value | $492.9M |
| Shares Outstanding | 46.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $11 |
| Current Share Price | $21 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -48.8% |
Valuation Summary
$10.51
Implied Price
$20.52
Current Price
-48.8%
Upside/Downside
9.6%
WACC
COHU Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-37.06
-280.6%
Peer Median: 20.1x
EV/EBITDA
$13.70
-33.2%
Peer Median: 14.6x
P/S Ratio
$20.52
-0.0%
Peer Median: 2.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for COHU's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | COHU Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -11.1x | 20.1x | 20.5x | -155.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.5x | 14.6x | 13.7x | 20.3% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.4x | 2.4x | 2.9x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.35B | 13.3x | 11.0x | 2.4x | |
| $1.77B | 17.5x | 9.0x | 2.2x | |
| $1.22B | 8.6x | 1.8x | 1.4x | |
| $1.29B | 20.2x | 16.6x | 1.8x | |
| $1.14B | 40.5x | 8.7x | 0.5x | |
| $0.95B | 0.0x | 14.6x | 2.4x | |
| $0.88B | 206.2x | 101.1x | 4.7x | |
| $0.78B | 0.0x | 30.8x | 0.9x | |
| $0.46B | 20.1x | 217.8x | 7.5x | |
| $0.16B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1281.9x | |
| $153.14B | 23.0x | 17.3x | 5.5x |
COHU Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-16.62
EPV per Share
$20.52
Current Price
-181.0%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC: 9.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $-0.8B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-0.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $-16.62 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.1% |
| Debt Weight | 1.9% |
| WACC | 9.0% |