Complete AEHR Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
AEHR DCF Analysis
AEHR (Aehr Test Systems) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.8M | $65.0M | $66.2M | $82.8M | $103.5M | $129.3M | $161.7M | $202.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 27.8% | 1.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $5.8M | $13.4M | $10.1M | $13.0M | $16.4M | $20.6M | $25.9M | $32.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | 11.4% | 20.6% | 15.2% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| Tax Rate % | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 16.2% |
| NOPAT | $5.7M | $13.3M | $10.1M | $11.7M | $14.5M | $17.9M | $22.1M | $27.3M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 11.3% | 20.5% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 13.5% |
| Capex | $416.0K | $1.4M | $749.0K | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.7M | $2.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $307.0K | $450.0K | $1.4M | $925.7K | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Change in NWC | $38.9M | $23.7M | $14.6M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 76.5% | 36.5% | 22.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-33.2M | $-11.3M | $-3.9M | $11.6M | $14.4M | $17.9M | $22.2M | $27.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 65.9% | 65.3% | 395.4% | 24.3% | 24.2% | 24.2% | 24.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -65.4% | -17.4% | -5.9% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 13.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.878 | 0.772 | 0.678 | 0.595 | 0.523 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $10.2M | $11.1M | $12.1M | $13.2M | $14.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $10.2M | $21.3M | $33.4M | $46.7M | $61.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 10.3% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 2.24 |
| Cost of Equity | 14.0% |
| Total Debt | $6.2M |
| Market Cap | $423.5M |
| Total Capital | $429.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.6% |
| WACC | 13.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $27.6M |
| Terminal Value | $249.3M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $130.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $61.1M |
| Net Debt | $-43.0M |
| Equity Value | $234.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $8 |
| Current Share Price | $14 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -44.4% |
Valuation Summary
$7.92
Implied Price
$14.22
Current Price
-44.4%
Upside/Downside
13.8%
WACC
AEHR Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$17.11
+20.3%
Peer Median: 22.3x
EV/EBITDA
$1.04
-92.7%
Peer Median: 16.2x
P/S Ratio
$4.86
-65.8%
Peer Median: 2.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AEHR's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AEHR Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.5x | 22.3x | 24.8x | -16.8% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 198.7x | 16.2x | 17.0x | 1124.7% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 6.9x | 2.4x | 2.9x | 192.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.25B | 19.7x | 16.2x | 1.8x | |
| $1.09B | 38.8x | 8.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 14.6x | 2.4x | |
| $0.87B | 202.7x | 99.2x | 4.7x | |
| $0.72B | 0.0x | 28.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.42B | 18.5x | 198.7x | 6.9x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1277.6x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $148.11B | 22.3x | 16.7x | 5.3x |
AEHR Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.77 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $3.77 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$8.07
Intrinsic Value
$14.22
Current Price
-43.3%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.77 = 17.29
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
17.29 × 3.77 = 65.16
Step 3: Take square root
√65.16 = 8.07
Graham Number Result:
$8.07
AEHR Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.77 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.77
Latest 10-K • 2024-05-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$18.83
Intrinsic Value
$14.22
Current Price
+32.4%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
AEHR Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.77
Latest 10-K • 2024-05-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.77 × 10.0% = $7.69
$7.69
Fair Value
$14.22
Current Price
-46.0%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
18.5x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
1.85
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
AEHR Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$12.55
EPV per Share
$14.22
Current Price
-11.8%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC: 8.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $12.55 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.6% |
| Debt Weight | 1.4% |
| WACC | 8.9% |