Complete ACLS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
ACLS DCF Analysis
ACLS (Axcelis Technologies, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $920.0M | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 22.9% | -10.0% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% |
| EBIT | $212.4M | $265.8M | $210.8M | $261.7M | $297.5M | $334.1M | $371.4M | $408.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | 23.1% | 23.5% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 22.5% | 22.6% | 22.7% | 22.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 16.4% | 17.6% |
| NOPAT | $189.8M | $234.9M | $184.0M | $228.4M | $256.0M | $283.4M | $310.5M | $336.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 20.6% | 20.8% | 18.1% | 19.6% | 19.4% | 19.2% | 19.0% | 18.8% |
| Capex | $10.7M | $20.7M | $12.2M | $16.5M | $17.7M | $18.8M | $19.8M | $20.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Depreciation | $11.6M | $13.1M | $15.8M | $15.4M | $17.5M | $19.5M | $21.6M | $23.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Change in NWC | $160.4M | $165.3M | $121.2M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 17.4% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $30.3M | $62.0M | $66.4M | $227.4M | $255.7M | $284.1M | $312.3M | $339.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 104.8% | 7.1% | 242.5% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 19.5% | 19.4% | 19.2% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.903 | 0.816 | 0.737 | 0.665 | 0.601 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $205.3M | $208.6M | $209.3M | $207.7M | $204.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $205.3M | $413.9M | $623.2M | $830.9M | $1.0B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.7% |
| Tax Rate | 12.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.52 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.8% |
| Total Debt | $43.7M |
| Market Cap | $2.3B |
| Total Capital | $2.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 1.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.2% |
| WACC | 10.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $339.8M |
| Terminal Value | $4.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.5B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.0B |
| Net Debt | $-79.8M |
| Equity Value | $3.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 32.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $112 |
| Current Share Price | $72 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +54.7% |
Valuation Summary
$111.86
Implied Price
$72.33
Current Price
+54.7%
Upside/Downside
10.7%
WACC
ACLS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$122.51
+69.4%
Peer Median: 22.3x
EV/EBITDA
$104.38
+44.3%
Peer Median: 16.2x
P/S Ratio
$63.22
-12.6%
Peer Median: 2.1x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ACLS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ACLS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.1x | 22.3x | 25.2x | -41.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 16.2x | 13.6x | -33.1% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.4x | 2.1x | 2.6x | 14.4% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6.81B | 30.3x | 16.6x | 1.9x | |
| $5.38B | 37.6x | 24.5x | 3.8x | |
| $4.91B | 22.7x | 18.5x | 4.8x | |
| $5.32B | 16.9x | 5.2x | 0.8x | |
| $2.72B | 50.6x | 22.1x | 3.5x | |
| $2.32B | 13.1x | 10.9x | 2.4x | |
| $1.70B | 16.8x | 8.6x | 2.1x | |
| $1.21B | 8.5x | 1.8x | 1.4x | |
| $1.25B | 19.7x | 16.2x | 1.8x | |
| $1.09B | 38.8x | 8.4x | 0.5x | |
| $148.11B | 22.3x | 16.7x | 5.3x |
ACLS Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $5.50 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $30.97 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$61.93
Intrinsic Value
$72.33
Current Price
-14.4%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 5.50 = 123.84
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
123.84 × 30.97 = 3835.24
Step 3: Take square root
√3835.24 = 61.93
Graham Number Result:
$61.93
ACLS Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
5.50 × (8.5 + 2 × 28.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$5.50
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y28.0%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y64.0%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$355.35
Intrinsic Value
$72.33
Current Price
+391.3%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 28.0%
ACLS Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$5.50
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y28.0%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y64.0%
5-year earnings growth
28.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$5.50 × 28.0% = $154.28
$154.28
Fair Value
$72.33
Current Price
+113.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
13.1x
Current P/E
28.0%
Growth Rate
0.47
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
ACLS Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$69.03
EPV per Share
$72.33
Current Price
-4.6%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC: 8.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $69.03 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 98.2% |
| Debt Weight | 1.8% |
| WACC | 8.9% |