Complete ACMR Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
ACMR DCF Analysis
ACMR (ACM Research, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $388.8M | $557.7M | $782.1M | $977.6M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 43.4% | 40.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $59.0M | $95.8M | $151.0M | $168.4M | $211.7M | $266.2M | $334.6M | $420.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 15.2% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 17.2% | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| Tax Rate % | 24.9% | 16.7% | 21.1% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 16.3% | 17.6% |
| NOPAT | $44.3M | $79.9M | $119.2M | $147.2M | $182.4M | $226.0M | $280.0M | $346.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 11.4% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 14.5% |
| Capex | $92.5M | $64.3M | $82.5M | $84.1M | $99.9M | $118.6M | $140.9M | $167.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 23.8% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% |
| Depreciation | $5.4M | $8.1M | $10.0M | $13.4M | $16.7M | $20.9M | $26.1M | $32.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-179.4M | $107.9M | $166.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -46.1% | 19.3% | 21.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $136.6M | $-84.2M | $-120.0M | $76.4M | $99.2M | $128.3M | $165.3M | $212.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -161.7% | -42.5% | 163.7% | 29.8% | 29.3% | 28.8% | 28.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 35.1% | -15.1% | -15.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.908 | 0.824 | 0.748 | 0.679 | 0.617 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $69.4M | $81.8M | $96.0M | $112.2M | $130.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $69.4M | $151.2M | $247.2M | $359.4M | $490.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 12.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.48 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.6% |
| Total Debt | $188.8M |
| Market Cap | $1.7B |
| Total Capital | $1.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 10.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 90.0% |
| WACC | 10.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $212.2M |
| Terminal Value | $2.8B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.8B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $490.2M |
| Net Debt | $-218.7M |
| Equity Value | $2.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 66.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $37 |
| Current Share Price | $27 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +39.1% |
Valuation Summary
$37.15
Implied Price
$26.70
Current Price
+39.1%
Upside/Downside
10.2%
WACC
ACMR Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$35.43
+32.7%
Peer Median: 22.3x
EV/EBITDA
$39.42
+47.7%
Peer Median: 14.6x
P/S Ratio
$29.63
+11.0%
Peer Median: 2.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ACMR's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ACMR Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.8x | 22.3x | 24.7x | -24.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6x | 14.6x | 13.4x | -41.0% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.1x | 2.4x | 2.6x | -9.9% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5.38B | 37.6x | 24.5x | 3.8x | |
| $4.91B | 22.7x | 18.5x | 4.8x | |
| $5.32B | 16.9x | 5.2x | 0.8x | |
| $2.72B | 50.6x | 22.1x | 3.5x | |
| $2.32B | 13.1x | 10.9x | 2.4x | |
| $1.70B | 16.8x | 8.6x | 2.1x | |
| $1.21B | 8.5x | 1.8x | 1.4x | |
| $1.25B | 19.7x | 16.2x | 1.8x | |
| $1.09B | 38.8x | 8.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 14.6x | 2.4x | |
| $148.11B | 22.3x | 16.7x | 5.3x |
ACMR Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.59 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $13.66 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$22.12
Intrinsic Value
$26.70
Current Price
-17.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.59 = 35.82
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
35.82 × 13.66 = 489.14
Step 3: Take square root
√489.14 = 22.12
Graham Number Result:
$22.12
ACMR Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.59 × (8.5 + 2 × 36.7%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.59
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y36.7%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y35.0%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$130.33
Intrinsic Value
$26.70
Current Price
+388.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 36.7%
ACMR Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.59
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y36.7%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y35.0%
5-year earnings growth
36.7%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.59 × 36.7% = $58.40
$58.40
Fair Value
$26.70
Current Price
+118.7%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
16.8x
Current P/E
36.7%
Growth Rate
0.46
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
ACMR Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$18.47
EPV per Share
$26.70
Current Price
-30.8%
Upside/Downside
8.5%
WACC: 8.5% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $1.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $18.47 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 90.4% |
| Debt Weight | 9.6% |
| WACC | 8.5% |