Complete BZAI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
BZAI DCF Analysis
BZAI (Blaize Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.8M | $3.9M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $917.6K |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 0.4% | -59.7% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-50.2M | $-38.5M | $-47.6M | $69.9K | $62.9K | $56.6K | $51.0K | $45.9K |
| EBIT Margin % | -1307.4% | -999.2% | -3065.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-37.7M | $-28.9M | $-35.7M | $52.4K | $47.2K | $42.5K | $38.2K | $34.4K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -980.5% | -749.4% | -2299.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $493.0K | $220.0K | $0 | $86.4K | $73.9K | $63.2K | $54.0K | $46.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 12.8% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| Depreciation | $2.8M | $2.0M | $0 | $580.5K | $522.5K | $470.2K | $423.2K | $380.9K |
| D&A / Revenue % | 71.6% | 52.9% | 0.0% | 41.5% | 41.5% | 41.5% | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-8.7M | $1.9M | $-7.6M | $14.0K | $12.6K | $11.3K | $10.2K | $9.2K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -227.3% | 48.9% | -487.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-26.7M | $-29.0M | $-28.1M | $532.6K | $483.2K | $438.2K | $397.2K | $359.9K |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -8.6% | 2.8% | 101.9% | -9.3% | -9.3% | -9.4% | -9.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -694.5% | -751.1% | -1811.2% | 38.1% | 38.4% | 38.7% | 39.0% | 39.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.957 | 0.915 | 0.875 | 0.837 | 0.801 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $509.5K | $442.2K | $383.6K | $332.7K | $288.4K |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $509.5K | $951.7K | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.03 |
| Cost of Equity | 4.5% |
| Total Debt | $1.5M |
| Market Cap | $272.0M |
| Total Capital | $273.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 0.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.5% |
| WACC | 4.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $359.9K |
| Terminal Value | $18.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $14.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.0M |
| Net Debt | $1.5M |
| Equity Value | $15.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 17.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -67.9% |
Valuation Summary
$0.86
Implied Price
$2.67
Current Price
-67.9%
Upside/Downside
4.5%
WACC
BZAI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-194.71
-7378.8%
Peer Median: 48.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 35.4x
P/S Ratio
$0.07
-97.5%
Peer Median: 4.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for BZAI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | BZAI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.7x | 48.2x | 53.4x | -101.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 35.4x | 32.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 175.0x | 4.3x | 4.0x | 3977.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.49B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.4x | |
| $0.44B | 0.0x | 35.4x | 1.4x | |
| $0.35B | 23.4x | 21.5x | 13.6x | |
| $0.24B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.25B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 175.0x | |
| $0.13B | 88.7x | 274.5x | 2.7x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.3x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.9x | |
| $0.06B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 20.8x | |
| $3467.97B | 48.2x | 40.3x | 26.6x |