Complete WOLF Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
WOLF DCF Analysis
WOLF (Wolfspeed, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $746.2M | $921.9M | $807.2M | $901.2M | $995.7M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 23.5% | -12.4% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% |
| EBIT | $-248.1M | $-380.6M | $-372.0M | $45.1M | $49.8M | $54.5M | $59.1M | $63.6M |
| EBIT Margin % | -33.2% | -41.3% | -46.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-186.1M | $-285.4M | $-279.0M | $33.8M | $37.3M | $40.9M | $44.3M | $47.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -24.9% | -31.0% | -34.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $650.6M | $962.3M | $2.3B | $27.0M | $29.9M | $32.7M | $35.5M | $38.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 87.2% | 104.4% | 281.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $129.8M | $164.0M | $181.0M | $173.1M | $191.2M | $209.2M | $227.0M | $244.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 17.4% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% |
| Change in NWC | $344.0M | $1.6B | $-629.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 46.1% | 172.5% | -78.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-1.1B | $-2.7B | $-1.7B | $179.8M | $198.7M | $217.4M | $235.9M | $253.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -154.4% | 34.8% | 110.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -140.8% | -290.0% | -215.9% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.949 | 0.901 | 0.855 | 0.812 | 0.771 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $170.7M | $179.0M | $186.0M | $191.5M | $195.7M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $170.7M | $349.7M | $535.7M | $727.2M | $922.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.29 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.0% |
| Total Debt | $6.3B |
| Market Cap | $231.1M |
| Total Capital | $6.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 96.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 3.5% |
| WACC | 5.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $253.9M |
| Terminal Value | $9.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $7.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $922.9M |
| Net Debt | $5.2B |
| Equity Value | $2.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 125.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $22 |
| Current Share Price | $1 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +1361.8% |
Valuation Summary
$21.71
Implied Price
$1.49
Current Price
+1361.8%
Upside/Downside
5.3%
WACC
WOLF Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-350.15
-23678.9%
Peer Median: 48.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 34.8x
P/S Ratio
$12.39
+734.6%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for WOLF's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | WOLF Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -0.2x | 48.3x | 43.1x | -100.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 34.8x | 27.3x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.3x | 2.5x | 3.3x | -88.0% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.69B | 12.2x | 12.7x | 1.0x | |
| $0.55B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $0.48B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.4x | |
| $0.44B | 0.0x | 34.8x | 1.3x | |
| $0.35B | 23.3x | 21.4x | 13.6x | |
| $0.23B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x | |
| $0.24B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 173.4x | |
| $0.13B | 88.7x | 271.2x | 2.7x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 4.2x | |
| $3479.20B | 48.3x | 40.4x | 26.7x |