Complete PI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
PI DCF Analysis
PI (Impinj, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $257.8M | $307.5M | $366.1M | $454.7M | $553.7M | $662.2M | $779.0M | $902.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 19.3% | 19.0% | 24.2% | 21.8% | 19.6% | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| EBIT | $-19.6M | $-43.5M | $-7.1M | $22.7M | $27.7M | $33.1M | $39.0M | $45.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | -7.6% | -14.1% | -1.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.4% | 20.1% | 20.6% | 21.1% | 21.6% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $-14.7M | $-32.6M | $-7.0M | $18.2M | $22.0M | $26.1M | $30.6M | $35.2M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -5.7% | -10.6% | -1.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $12.1M | $18.6M | $17.1M | $23.8M | $27.5M | $31.3M | $34.9M | $38.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Depreciation | $6.0M | $13.6M | $13.6M | $15.9M | $19.4M | $23.1M | $27.2M | $31.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Change in NWC | $12.5M | $6.0M | $-243.6M | $10.3M | $10.0M | $9.6M | $9.0M | $8.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 4.8% | 2.0% | -66.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-33.2M | $-43.6M | $233.0M | $-29.4K | $3.8M | $8.4M | $13.8M | $19.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -31.2% | 634.5% | -100.0% | 13001.5% | 122.2% | 64.1% | 44.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -12.9% | -14.2% | 63.7% | -0.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.901 | 0.811 | 0.730 | 0.658 | 0.592 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-26.4K | $3.1M | $6.1M | $9.1M | $11.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-26.4K | $3.0M | $9.2M | $18.3M | $30.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 20.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.64 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.6% |
| Total Debt | $292.8M |
| Market Cap | $3.5B |
| Total Capital | $3.8B |
| Debt Weighting | 7.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.2% |
| WACC | 11.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $19.9M |
| Terminal Value | $238.8M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $141.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $30.1M |
| Net Debt | $246.7M |
| Equity Value | $-75.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $-3 |
| Current Share Price | $120 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -102.1% |
Valuation Summary
$-2.55
Implied Price
$119.75
Current Price
-102.1%
Upside/Downside
11.0%
WACC
PI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-1.60
-101.3%
Peer Median: 47.9x
EV/EBITDA
$15.62
-87.0%
Peer Median: 31.1x
P/S Ratio
$83.10
-30.6%
Peer Median: 6.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for PI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | PI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -3583.6x | 47.9x | 44.0x | -7576.4% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 255.6x | 31.1x | 31.7x | 721.1% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 9.5x | 6.6x | 5.7x | 44.1% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5.15B | 16.4x | 10.2x | 2.7x | |
| $4.97B | 62.8x | 31.1x | 6.8x | |
| $4.86B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.1x | |
| $3.53B | 844.7x | 0.0x | 383.7x | |
| $4.06B | 0.0x | 318.8x | 6.2x | |
| $3.47B | 363.2x | 255.6x | 9.5x | |
| $3.30B | 276.1x | 30.7x | 3.6x | |
| $2.87B | 78.5x | 63.7x | 6.6x | |
| $2.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.0x | |
| $2.39B | 14.6x | 46.2x | 2.3x | |
| $3450.04B | 47.9x | 40.1x | 26.4x |