Complete SMTC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SMTC DCF Analysis
SMTC (Semtech Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Historical) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) | 2030 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $756.5M | $868.8M | $909.3M | $992.8M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 14.8% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| EBIT | $92.8M | $-944.3M | $49.9M | $49.6M | $53.7M | $57.7M | $61.6M | $65.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 12.3% | -108.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 22.1% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 17.7% | 18.5% | 19.2% | 19.9% | 20.6% |
| NOPAT | $72.3M | $-708.2M | $37.5M | $40.8M | $43.8M | $46.7M | $49.3M | $51.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 9.6% | -81.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Capex | $28.3M | $31.1M | $14.2M | $35.6M | $36.6M | $37.4M | $37.9M | $38.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| Depreciation | $36.9M | $84.5M | $49.4M | $66.3M | $71.8M | $77.1M | $82.3M | $87.2M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.9% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-48.0M | $-8.9M | $-14.6M | $-15.5M | $-13.4M | $-11.5M | $-9.8M | $-8.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -6.3% | -1.0% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% |
| Unlevered FCF | $128.8M | $-646.0M | $87.2M | $87.0M | $92.4M | $97.9M | $103.6M | $109.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -601.5% | 113.5% | -0.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 17.0% | -74.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.897 | 0.804 | 0.721 | 0.646 | 0.579 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $78.0M | $74.3M | $70.6M | $66.9M | $63.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $78.0M | $152.2M | $222.8M | $289.7M | $353.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 17.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.89 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.6% |
| Total Debt | $551.5M |
| Market Cap | $3.3B |
| Total Capital | $3.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 14.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 85.7% |
| WACC | 11.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $109.3M |
| Terminal Value | $1.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $717.6M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $353.0M |
| Net Debt | $399.8M |
| Equity Value | $670.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 71.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $9 |
| Current Share Price | $38 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -75.4% |
Valuation Summary
$9.37
Implied Price
$38.14
Current Price
-75.4%
Upside/Downside
11.5%
WACC
SMTC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-112.64
-395.3%
Peer Median: 62.8x
EV/EBITDA
$44.06
+15.5%
Peer Median: 31.1x
P/S Ratio
$69.53
+82.3%
Peer Median: 6.6x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SMTC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SMTC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -21.3x | 62.8x | 57.7x | -133.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.2x | 31.1x | 31.8x | -3.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 3.6x | 6.6x | 5.6x | -45.1% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.97B | 62.8x | 31.1x | 6.8x | |
| $4.86B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.1x | |
| $3.53B | 844.7x | 0.0x | 383.7x | |
| $4.06B | 0.0x | 318.8x | 6.2x | |
| $3.47B | 363.2x | 255.6x | 9.5x | |
| $3.30B | 276.1x | 30.7x | 3.6x | |
| $2.87B | 78.5x | 63.7x | 6.6x | |
| $2.27B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 8.0x | |
| $2.39B | 14.6x | 46.2x | 2.3x | |
| $2.16B | 84.5x | 10.8x | 1.6x | |
| $3450.04B | 47.9x | 40.1x | 26.4x |