Complete ATOM Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ATOM DCF Analysis
ATOM (Atomera Incorporated) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $382.0K | $550.0K | $135.0K | $168.8K | $210.9K | $263.7K | $329.6K | $408.8K |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 44.0% | -75.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 24.0% |
| EBIT | $-17.5M | $-20.7M | $-19.3M | $8.4K | $10.5K | $13.2K | $16.5K | $20.4K |
| EBIT Margin % | -4588.0% | -3759.5% | -14323.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-13.1M | $-15.5M | $-14.5M | $6.3K | $7.9K | $9.9K | $12.4K | $15.3K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -3441.0% | -2819.6% | -10742.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $39.0K | $31.0K | $14.0K | $14.7K | $17.5K | $20.8K | $24.7K | $29.1K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 10.2% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| Depreciation | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $937.7K | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.8M | $2.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 394.2% | 261.6% | 1011.1% | 555.7% | 555.7% | 555.7% | 555.7% | 555.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-7.6M | $-2.1M | $6.9M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -1979.3% | -382.5% | 5130.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-4.1M | $-12.0M | $-20.1M | $929.3K | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.8M | $2.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -191.4% | -67.4% | 104.6% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 24.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1077.6% | -2181.0% | -14871.9% | 550.7% | 551.1% | 551.5% | 551.9% | 552.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.910 | 0.828 | 0.754 | 0.686 | 0.625 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $845.8K | $963.0K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $845.8K | $1.8M | $2.9M | $4.2M | $5.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.31 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.9% |
| Total Debt | $2.0M |
| Market Cap | $154.6M |
| Total Capital | $156.6M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.7% |
| WACC | 9.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $2.3M |
| Terminal Value | $31.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $19.6M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $5.6M |
| Net Debt | $-23.8M |
| Equity Value | $49.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -64.3% |
Valuation Summary
$1.80
Implied Price
$5.04
Current Price
-64.3%
Upside/Downside
9.9%
WACC
ATOM Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-13.85
-375.1%
Peer Median: 22.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 16.7x
P/S Ratio
$0.01
-99.8%
Peer Median: 2.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ATOM's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ATOM Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -8.1x | 22.3x | 26.5x | -136.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 16.7x | 17.1x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1277.6x | 2.4x | 2.8x | 54205.1% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.09B | 38.8x | 8.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.92B | 0.0x | 14.6x | 2.4x | |
| $0.87B | 202.7x | 99.2x | 4.7x | |
| $0.72B | 0.0x | 28.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.42B | 18.5x | 198.7x | 6.9x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1277.6x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $148.11B | 22.3x | 16.7x | 5.3x |