Complete ASYS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
ASYS DCF Analysis
ASYS (Amtech Systems, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $106.3M | $113.3M | $101.2M | $107.0M | $112.4M | $117.6M | $122.5M | $127.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 6.6% | -10.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% |
| EBIT | $4.8M | $-15.0M | $-6.7M | $5.3M | $5.6M | $5.9M | $6.1M | $6.4M |
| EBIT Margin % | 4.5% | -13.2% | -6.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 7.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 26.5% | 26.4% | 26.2% | 26.1% | 25.9% |
| NOPAT | $4.5M | $-11.2M | $-5.0M | $3.9M | $4.1M | $4.3M | $4.5M | $4.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 4.2% | -9.9% | -5.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $1.1M | $2.9M | $4.9M | $3.4M | $3.4M | $3.4M | $3.4M | $3.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Depreciation | $1.7M | $5.0M | $3.0M | $3.2M | $3.4M | $3.5M | $3.7M | $3.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Change in NWC | $14.6M | $-28.8M | $-6.7M | $-3.8M | $-3.2M | $-2.6M | $-2.2M | $-1.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 13.7% | -25.5% | -6.6% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -2.2% | -1.8% | -1.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-9.5M | $19.7M | $-201.8K | $7.5M | $7.3M | $7.1M | $7.0M | $7.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 307.6% | -101.0% | 3802.8% | -2.9% | -1.9% | -1.0% | -0.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -8.9% | 17.4% | -0.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.911 | 0.830 | 0.757 | 0.689 | 0.628 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.8M | $6.0M | $5.4M | $4.9M | $4.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.8M | $12.8M | $18.2M | $23.1M | $27.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 26.5% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.57 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.0% |
| Total Debt | $17.6M |
| Market Cap | $65.4M |
| Total Capital | $83.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 21.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 78.8% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $7.0M |
| Terminal Value | $99.6M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $62.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $27.5M |
| Net Debt | $6.5M |
| Equity Value | $83.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $6 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +28.7% |
Valuation Summary
$5.88
Implied Price
$4.57
Current Price
+28.7%
Upside/Downside
9.7%
WACC
ASYS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 6 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-49.20
-1176.5%
Peer Median: 22.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 19.2x
P/S Ratio
$6.09
+33.2%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ASYS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ASYS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -2.1x | 22.3x | 20.4x | -109.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 19.2x | 17.9x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.7x | 1.0x | 2.9x | -24.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.42B | 18.5x | 198.7x | 6.9x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1277.6x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 19.2x | 0.7x | |
| $148.11B | 22.3x | 16.7x | 5.3x |