Complete AXTI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AXTI DCF Analysis
AXTI (AXT, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $141.1M | $75.8M | $99.4M | $102.8M | $106.1M | $109.1M | $111.9M | $114.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -46.3% | 31.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| EBIT | $12.6M | $-21.6M | $-14.8M | $5.1M | $5.3M | $5.5M | $5.6M | $5.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 8.9% | -28.5% | -14.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 10.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 19.1% | 19.7% | 20.3% | 20.9% | 21.4% |
| NOPAT | $11.2M | $-16.2M | $-11.1M | $4.2M | $4.3M | $4.3M | $4.4M | $4.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 8.0% | -21.3% | -11.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $28.5M | $10.5M | $5.8M | $10.1M | $9.9M | $9.7M | $9.4M | $9.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 20.2% | 13.8% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% |
| Depreciation | $8.1M | $8.7M | $9.0M | $9.0M | $9.3M | $9.6M | $9.8M | $10.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 5.8% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Change in NWC | $-4.1M | $-19.1M | $-5.0M | $-4.5M | $-3.7M | $-3.1M | $-2.5M | $-2.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -2.9% | -25.2% | -5.0% | -4.4% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -2.2% | -1.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-5.0M | $1.2M | $-2.9M | $7.6M | $7.4M | $7.3M | $7.3M | $7.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 124.0% | -342.9% | 362.2% | -2.6% | -1.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -3.5% | 1.6% | -2.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.907 | 0.823 | 0.746 | 0.677 | 0.614 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.9M | $6.1M | $5.5M | $5.0M | $4.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.9M | $12.9M | $18.4M | $23.4M | $27.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Tax Rate | 19.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.24% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.98 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.8% |
| Total Debt | $49.8M |
| Market Cap | $92.1M |
| Total Capital | $141.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 35.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 64.9% |
| WACC | 10.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $7.4M |
| Terminal Value | $98.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $60.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $27.9M |
| Net Debt | $26.9M |
| Equity Value | $61.4M |
| Shares Outstanding | 43.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $2 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -29.6% |
Valuation Summary
$1.42
Implied Price
$2.02
Current Price
-29.6%
Upside/Downside
10.2%
WACC
AXTI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 7 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-9.37
-564.0%
Peer Median: 22.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 19.2x
P/S Ratio
$2.02
+0.0%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AXTI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AXTI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -4.8x | 22.3x | 20.4x | -121.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 19.2x | 21.6x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.6x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.72B | 0.0x | 28.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.42B | 18.5x | 198.7x | 6.9x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1277.6x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.0x | |
| $0.07B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.7x | |
| $0.02B | 0.0x | 19.2x | 0.7x | |
| $148.11B | 22.3x | 16.7x | 5.3x |