Complete RGTI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
RGTI DCF Analysis
RGTI (Rigetti Computing, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.1M | $12.0M | $10.8M | $11.9M | $13.0M | $14.1M | $15.1M | $16.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -8.3% | -10.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% |
| EBIT | $-103.7M | $-72.3M | $-68.5M | $594.5K | $649.1K | $702.7K | $754.9K | $805.4K |
| EBIT Margin % | -791.5% | -602.1% | -634.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-77.8M | $-54.2M | $-51.4M | $445.9K | $486.8K | $527.0K | $566.2K | $604.1K |
| NOPAT Margin % | -593.6% | -451.5% | -476.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $22.7M | $9.1M | $11.1M | $356.7K | $389.4K | $421.6K | $452.9K | $483.2K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 173.5% | 75.4% | 102.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Depreciation | $7.0M | $7.4M | $6.9M | $7.1M | $7.8M | $8.4M | $9.0M | $9.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 53.6% | 61.8% | 64.0% | 59.8% | 59.8% | 59.8% | 59.8% | 59.8% |
| Change in NWC | $122.9M | $-54.1M | $116.3M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 938.2% | -450.5% | 1077.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-216.4M | $-1.8M | $-171.9M | $7.2M | $7.9M | $8.5M | $9.1M | $9.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 99.2% | -9696.2% | 104.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1651.8% | -14.6% | -1592.7% | 60.6% | 60.6% | 60.6% | 60.6% | 60.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.901 | 0.812 | 0.732 | 0.659 | 0.594 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $6.5M | $6.4M | $6.2M | $6.0M | $5.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $6.5M | $12.9M | $19.1M | $25.1M | $30.9M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.51 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.0% |
| Total Debt | $8.8M |
| Market Cap | $3.5B |
| Total Capital | $3.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.8% |
| WACC | 11.0% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $9.8M |
| Terminal Value | $117.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $70.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $30.9M |
| Net Debt | $-58.9M |
| Equity Value | $159.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 184.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $12 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -92.8% |
Valuation Summary
$0.87
Implied Price
$12.09
Current Price
-92.8%
Upside/Downside
11.0%
WACC
RGTI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-21.87
-281.0%
Peer Median: 47.9x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 30.7x
P/S Ratio
$0.22
-98.2%
Peer Median: 6.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for RGTI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | RGTI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -26.5x | 47.9x | 47.0x | -155.3% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 30.7x | 26.8x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 383.7x | 6.8x | 7.3x | 5502.3% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6.38B | 125.0x | 93.6x | 13.1x | |
| $6.04B | 29.5x | 22.0x | 10.0x | |
| $5.15B | 16.4x | 10.2x | 2.7x | |
| $4.97B | 62.8x | 31.1x | 6.8x | |
| $4.86B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.1x | |
| $3.53B | 844.7x | 0.0x | 383.7x | |
| $4.06B | 0.0x | 318.8x | 6.2x | |
| $3.47B | 363.2x | 255.6x | 9.5x | |
| $3.30B | 276.1x | 30.7x | 3.6x | |
| $2.87B | 78.5x | 63.7x | 6.6x | |
| $3450.04B | 47.9x | 40.1x | 26.4x |