Complete ENPH Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
ENPH DCF Analysis
ENPH (Enphase Energy, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.3B | $2.3B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -1.7% | -41.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| EBIT | $448.3M | $445.7M | $77.3M | $205.8M | $215.2M | $224.2M | $232.7M | $240.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | 19.2% | 19.5% | 5.8% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 15.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 12.1% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 14.9% |
| NOPAT | $394.0M | $381.3M | $66.0M | $188.9M | $193.9M | $198.2M | $201.9M | $204.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 16.9% | 16.6% | 5.0% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 13.0% |
| Capex | $46.4M | $110.4M | $33.6M | $43.8M | $43.2M | $42.5M | $41.6M | $40.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Depreciation | $58.8M | $74.7M | $81.4M | $55.0M | $57.2M | $59.2M | $61.0M | $62.7M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.5% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Change in NWC | $603.4M | $285.0M | $-244.1M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 25.9% | 12.4% | -18.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-197.0M | $60.6M | $357.9M | $200.1M | $207.8M | $214.9M | $221.2M | $226.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 130.7% | 490.8% | -44.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -8.5% | 2.6% | 26.9% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.904 | 0.817 | 0.738 | 0.667 | 0.603 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $180.8M | $169.7M | $158.6M | $147.6M | $136.8M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $180.8M | $350.6M | $509.2M | $656.8M | $793.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 8.2% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.26% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.70 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.6% |
| Total Debt | $1.3B |
| Market Cap | $5.3B |
| Total Capital | $6.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 19.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 80.3% |
| WACC | 10.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $226.9M |
| Terminal Value | $2.9B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $793.6M |
| Net Debt | $939.1M |
| Equity Value | $1.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 140.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $11 |
| Current Share Price | $41 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -72.4% |
Valuation Summary
$11.25
Implied Price
$40.73
Current Price
-72.4%
Upside/Downside
10.6%
WACC
ENPH Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Energy
P/E Ratio
$29.22
-28.3%
Peer Median: 26.8x
EV/EBITDA
$35.60
-12.6%
Peer Median: 18.1x
P/S Ratio
$41.38
+1.6%
Peer Median: 3.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ENPH's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ENPH Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.4x | 26.8x | 28.6x | 39.4% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.4x | 18.1x | 17.8x | 34.5% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 3.8x | 3.8x | 4.4x | -1.6% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $124.01B | 26.8x | 21.1x | 7.2x | |
| $117.54B | 32.1x | 25.1x | 10.2x | |
| $14.44B | 25.3x | 19.5x | 5.0x | |
| $12.37B | 40.0x | 17.2x | 3.8x | |
| $6.66B | 29.6x | 16.4x | 1.8x | |
| $5.34B | 37.4x | 24.4x | 3.8x | |
| $4.81B | 22.2x | 18.1x | 4.7x | |
| $5.21B | 16.5x | 5.1x | 0.8x | |
| $2.68B | 50.0x | 21.8x | 3.5x | |
| $2.22B | 12.5x | 10.3x | 2.3x | |
| $146.08B | 22.0x | 16.5x | 5.2x |
ENPH Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.09 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $5.95 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$12.08
Intrinsic Value
$40.73
Current Price
-70.3%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.09 = 24.53
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
24.53 × 5.95 = 145.94
Step 3: Take square root
√145.94 = 12.08
Graham Number Result:
$12.08
ENPH Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$9.18
EPV per Share
$40.73
Current Price
-77.5%
Upside/Downside
8.0%
WACC: 8.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $1.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $1.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $9.18 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.0% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 81.3% |
| Debt Weight | 18.7% |
| WACC | 8.0% |