Complete ONTO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
ONTO DCF Analysis
ONTO (Onto Innovation Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $815.9M | $987.3M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -18.8% | 21.0% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% |
| EBIT | $236.7M | $116.1M | $187.1M | $209.9M | $234.6M | $259.5M | $284.5M | $309.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | 23.5% | 14.2% | 19.0% | 18.9% | 19.0% | 19.1% | 19.2% | 19.3% |
| Tax Rate % | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 14.0% |
| NOPAT | $218.8M | $106.1M | $171.2M | $195.9M | $214.7M | $232.7M | $249.9M | $266.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 21.8% | 13.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% | 17.4% | 17.1% | 16.9% | 16.6% |
| Capex | $18.4M | $22.6M | $31.9M | $22.3M | $23.5M | $24.6M | $25.5M | $26.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Depreciation | $64.7M | $67.2M | $62.3M | $77.6M | $86.3M | $95.0M | $103.6M | $112.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Change in NWC | $180.8M | $161.2M | $171.9M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 18.0% | 19.8% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $84.3M | $-10.5M | $29.7M | $251.2M | $277.4M | $303.1M | $328.0M | $351.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -112.5% | 382.4% | 746.5% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 8.4% | -1.3% | 3.0% | 22.6% | 22.5% | 22.3% | 22.1% | 22.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.905 | 0.818 | 0.740 | 0.670 | 0.606 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $227.3M | $227.0M | $224.4M | $219.6M | $213.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $227.3M | $454.3M | $678.6M | $898.2M | $1.1B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.8% |
| Tax Rate | 6.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.30% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.45 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.6% |
| Total Debt | $15.2M |
| Market Cap | $5.1B |
| Total Capital | $5.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.7% |
| WACC | 10.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $351.8M |
| Terminal Value | $4.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.7B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.1B |
| Net Debt | $-197.8M |
| Equity Value | $4.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 49.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $81 |
| Current Share Price | $104 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -22.1% |
Valuation Summary
$81.03
Implied Price
$104.04
Current Price
-22.1%
Upside/Downside
10.5%
WACC
ONTO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$114.63
+10.2%
Peer Median: 25.9x
EV/EBITDA
$93.50
-10.1%
Peer Median: 17.9x
P/S Ratio
$82.55
-20.7%
Peer Median: 3.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ONTO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ONTO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.5x | 25.9x | 29.0x | -9.2% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.2x | 17.9x | 17.3x | 6.9% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 5.0x | 3.9x | 4.1x | 26.0% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $122.27B | 33.4x | 26.1x | 10.6x | |
| $14.78B | 25.9x | 20.0x | 5.1x | |
| $13.12B | 42.4x | 17.9x | 4.0x | |
| $7.01B | 31.2x | 16.9x | 1.9x | |
| $5.60B | 39.2x | 25.3x | 3.9x | |
| $5.08B | 23.5x | 19.2x | 5.0x | |
| $5.50B | 17.4x | 5.4x | 0.9x | |
| $2.79B | 52.0x | 22.7x | 3.6x | |
| $2.35B | 13.3x | 11.0x | 2.4x | |
| $1.77B | 17.5x | 9.0x | 2.2x | |
| $153.14B | 23.0x | 17.3x | 5.5x |
ONTO Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $4.43 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $38.78 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$62.18
Intrinsic Value
$104.04
Current Price
-40.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 4.43 = 99.69
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
99.69 × 38.78 = 3866.14
Step 3: Take square root
√3866.14 = 62.18
Graham Number Result:
$62.18
ONTO Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
4.43 × (8.5 + 2 × 12.3%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$4.43
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
Historical 3Y12.3%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y129.5%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$146.42
Intrinsic Value
$104.04
Current Price
+40.7%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 12.3%
ONTO Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$4.43
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-28T00:00:00
Historical 3Y12.3%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y129.5%
5-year earnings growth
12.3%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$4.43 × 12.3% = $54.38
$54.38
Fair Value
$104.04
Current Price
-47.7%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
23.5x
Current P/E
12.3%
Growth Rate
1.91
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
ONTO Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.2 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.2 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$44.89
EPV per Share
$104.04
Current Price
-56.9%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC: 9.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.2B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $2.2B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $2.2B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $44.89 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 99.7% |
| Debt Weight | 0.3% |
| WACC | 9.0% |