Complete XPER Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
XPER DCF Analysis
XPER (Xperi Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $502.3M | $388.8M | $493.7M | $531.2M | $567.5M | $602.5M | $635.8M | $667.5M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -22.6% | 27.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| EBIT | $475.1M | $-129.6M | $-87.1M | $77.2M | $83.1M | $88.8M | $94.3M | $99.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 94.6% | -33.3% | -17.6% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 14.9% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 29.5% | 29.0% | 28.5% | 28.0% |
| NOPAT | $356.3M | $-97.2M | $-43.5M | $54.1M | $58.6M | $63.0M | $67.5M | $71.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 70.9% | -25.0% | -8.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.8% |
| Capex | $14.4M | $12.9M | $17.0M | $14.2M | $14.4M | $14.5M | $14.6M | $14.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Depreciation | $82.7M | $74.4M | $56.0M | $83.1M | $88.8M | $94.3M | $99.5M | $104.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 16.5% | 19.1% | 11.3% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| Change in NWC | $24.9M | $-30.2M | $-32.3M | $-12.4M | $-10.6M | $-9.0M | $-7.6M | $-6.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 5.0% | -7.8% | -6.5% | -2.3% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $399.8M | $-5.5M | $27.8M | $135.4M | $143.6M | $151.8M | $160.0M | $168.1M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -101.4% | 601.4% | 387.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 79.6% | -1.4% | 5.6% | 25.5% | 25.3% | 25.2% | 25.2% | 25.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.938 | 0.881 | 0.827 | 0.776 | 0.728 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $127.1M | $126.5M | $125.5M | $124.1M | $122.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $127.1M | $253.6M | $379.1M | $503.2M | $625.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 30.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.58 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.0% |
| Total Debt | $85.3M |
| Market Cap | $360.0M |
| Total Capital | $445.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 19.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 80.8% |
| WACC | 6.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $168.1M |
| Terminal Value | $4.2B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $3.1B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $625.6M |
| Net Debt | $-45.3M |
| Equity Value | $3.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 45.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $84 |
| Current Share Price | $8 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +960.3% |
Valuation Summary
$83.55
Implied Price
$7.88
Current Price
+960.3%
Upside/Downside
6.6%
WACC
XPER Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$6.50
-17.5%
Peer Median: 26.8x
EV/EBITDA
$42.40
+438.1%
Peer Median: 22.2x
P/S Ratio
$25.63
+225.3%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for XPER's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | XPER Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.5x | 26.8x | 26.5x | 21.2% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.6x | 22.2x | 16.5x | -83.8% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.8x | 2.5x | 3.6x | -69.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.52B | 60.1x | 31.0x | 1.8x | |
| $1.42B | 19.5x | 9.1x | 3.7x | |
| $1.29B | 26.8x | 22.2x | 4.8x | |
| $0.61B | 10.7x | 9.5x | 2.5x | |
| $0.36B | 32.5x | 3.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.33B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 5.4x | |
| $0.20B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.8x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.14B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $3444.39B | 35.8x | 23.3x | 12.8x |
XPER Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.24 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $9.52 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$7.21
Intrinsic Value
$7.88
Current Price
-8.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.24 = 5.46
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
5.46 × 9.52 = 51.96
Step 3: Take square root
√51.96 = 7.21
Graham Number Result:
$7.21