Complete SVCO Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
SVCO DCF Analysis
SVCO (Silvaco Group, Inc. Common Stock) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.5M | $54.2M | $59.7M | $66.6M | $73.5M | $80.5M | $87.2M | $93.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 16.7% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% |
| EBIT | $27.0K | $1.1M | $-40.3M | $3.3M | $3.7M | $4.0M | $4.4M | $4.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | 0.1% | 2.1% | -67.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 27.1% | 26.9% | 26.7% | 26.5% | 26.3% |
| NOPAT | $20.3K | $567.0K | $-30.2M | $2.4M | $2.7M | $2.9M | $3.2M | $3.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 0.0% | 1.0% | -50.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $89.0K | $339.0K | $505.0K | $666.0K | $735.5K | $804.5K | $872.5K | $938.9K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $551.0K | $601.0K | $1.3M | $987.1K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Change in NWC | $-5.4M | $-2.2M | $76.9M | $-2.3M | $-2.0M | $-1.8M | $-1.5M | $-1.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -11.5% | -4.0% | 128.8% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -2.2% | -1.8% | -1.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $5.8M | $3.0M | $-106.3M | $5.0M | $5.1M | $5.1M | $5.2M | $5.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -48.4% | -3627.7% | 104.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 12.6% | 5.6% | -178.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.852 | 0.725 | 0.618 | 0.526 | 0.448 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $4.3M | $3.7M | $3.2M | $2.7M | $2.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $4.3M | $8.0M | $11.1M | $13.9M | $16.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.8% |
| Tax Rate | 27.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 3.05 |
| Cost of Equity | 17.6% |
| Total Debt | $1.7M |
| Market Cap | $141.6M |
| Total Capital | $143.3M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.8% |
| WACC | 17.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $5.2M |
| Terminal Value | $36.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $16.1M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $16.2M |
| Net Debt | $-17.9M |
| Equity Value | $50.2M |
| Shares Outstanding | 28.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -63.5% |
Valuation Summary
$1.76
Implied Price
$4.82
Current Price
-63.5%
Upside/Downside
17.4%
WACC
SVCO Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-67.41
-1498.5%
Peer Median: 32.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 9.6x
P/S Ratio
$5.01
+4.0%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for SVCO's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | SVCO Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -2.3x | 32.2x | 20.5x | -107.2% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 9.6x | 12.8x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.4x | 2.5x | 4.4x | -3.8% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.62B | 10.8x | 9.6x | 2.5x | |
| $0.36B | 32.2x | 3.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.38B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 6.2x | |
| $0.20B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.8x | |
| $0.17B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.14B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.4x | |
| $0.08B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.6x | |
| $0.05B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 50.6x | |
| $3739.74B | 38.8x | 25.2x | 13.9x |