Complete TLS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TLS DCF Analysis
TLS (Telos Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $216.9M | $145.4M | $108.3M | $97.4M | $87.7M | $78.9M | $71.0M | $63.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -33.0% | -25.5% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
| EBIT | $-53.9M | $-40.3M | $-49.5M | $4.9M | $4.4M | $3.9M | $3.6M | $3.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -24.8% | -27.7% | -45.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $-40.4M | $-30.2M | $-37.1M | $3.9M | $3.5M | $3.1M | $2.8M | $2.5M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -18.6% | -20.8% | -34.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $13.7M | $15.5M | $2.3M | $5.6M | $4.8M | $4.1M | $3.5M | $3.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 6.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| Depreciation | $5.9M | $9.4M | $11.9M | $6.5M | $5.9M | $5.3M | $4.8M | $4.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.7% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Change in NWC | $-18.3M | $-21.7M | $-31.5M | $-4.1M | $-3.0M | $-2.1M | $-1.5M | $-1.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -8.4% | -14.9% | -29.1% | -4.2% | -3.4% | -2.7% | -2.2% | -1.7% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-29.9M | $-14.6M | $4.0M | $9.0M | $7.6M | $6.5M | $5.6M | $4.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 51.1% | 127.4% | 124.5% | -15.7% | -14.5% | -13.4% | -12.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -13.8% | -10.1% | 3.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.922 | 0.851 | 0.785 | 0.724 | 0.668 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $8.3M | $6.4M | $5.1M | $4.1M | $3.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $8.3M | $14.7M | $19.8M | $23.9M | $27.1M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 20.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.95 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | $10.1M |
| Market Cap | $196.6M |
| Total Capital | $206.7M |
| Debt Weighting | 4.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.1% |
| WACC | 8.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $4.9M |
| Terminal Value | $85.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $56.9M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $27.1M |
| Net Debt | $-44.4M |
| Equity Value | $128.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 71.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $2 |
| Current Share Price | $3 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -33.2% |
Valuation Summary
$1.79
Implied Price
$2.67
Current Price
-33.2%
Upside/Downside
8.4%
WACC
TLS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-19.81
-840.7%
Peer Median: 26.8x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 22.2x
P/S Ratio
$3.76
+40.7%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TLS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TLS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -3.6x | 26.8x | 21.2x | -113.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 22.2x | 14.7x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.8x | 2.5x | 4.3x | -28.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.29B | 26.8x | 22.2x | 4.8x | |
| $0.61B | 10.7x | 9.5x | 2.5x | |
| $0.36B | 32.5x | 3.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.33B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 5.4x | |
| $0.20B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.8x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.14B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.5x | |
| $0.09B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 7.8x | |
| $3444.39B | 35.8x | 23.3x | 12.8x |