Complete OSPN Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
OSPN DCF Analysis
OSPN (OneSpan Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $219.0M | $235.1M | $243.2M | $252.8M | $261.7M | $270.1M | $277.9M | $285.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 7.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| EBIT | $-495.0K | $-28.9M | $44.8M | $12.6M | $13.1M | $13.5M | $13.9M | $14.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | -0.2% | -12.3% | 18.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% |
| NOPAT | $-371.3K | $-21.7M | $44.8M | $10.1M | $10.4M | $10.7M | $10.9M | $11.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -0.2% | -9.2% | 18.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $5.0M | $12.5M | $9.2M | $7.0M | $6.9M | $6.8M | $6.6M | $6.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Depreciation | $7.1M | $6.5M | $8.4M | $7.9M | $8.2M | $8.5M | $8.7M | $9.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Change in NWC | $-11.3M | $-55.2M | $33.3M | $-6.5M | $-5.4M | $-4.5M | $-3.7M | $-3.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -5.2% | -23.5% | 13.7% | -2.6% | -2.1% | -1.6% | -1.3% | -1.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $13.0M | $27.5M | $10.6M | $17.5M | $17.1M | $16.8M | $16.7M | $16.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 112.2% | -61.3% | 64.7% | -2.4% | -1.6% | -0.9% | -0.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 5.9% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.912 | 0.832 | 0.758 | 0.692 | 0.631 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $16.0M | $14.2M | $12.8M | $11.5M | $10.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $16.0M | $30.2M | $43.0M | $54.5M | $65.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 20.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.21 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | $6.9M |
| Market Cap | $612.0M |
| Total Capital | $618.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.9% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $16.6M |
| Terminal Value | $238.1M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $150.2M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $65.0M |
| Net Debt | $-76.2M |
| Equity Value | $291.4M |
| Shares Outstanding | 39.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $7 |
| Current Share Price | $16 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -53.4% |
Valuation Summary
$7.46
Implied Price
$16.01
Current Price
-53.4%
Upside/Downside
9.7%
WACC
OSPN Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$48.39
+202.3%
Peer Median: 32.5x
EV/EBITDA
$27.15
+69.6%
Peer Median: 18.4x
P/S Ratio
$20.32
+26.9%
Peer Median: 3.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for OSPN's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | OSPN Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.7x | 32.5x | 34.7x | -66.9% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5x | 18.4x | 16.7x | -48.4% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 2.5x | 3.2x | 3.7x | -21.2% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.51B | 92.2x | 18.4x | 3.2x | |
| $1.52B | 60.1x | 31.0x | 1.8x | |
| $1.42B | 19.5x | 9.1x | 3.7x | |
| $1.29B | 26.8x | 22.2x | 4.8x | |
| $0.61B | 10.7x | 9.5x | 2.5x | |
| $0.36B | 32.5x | 3.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.33B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 5.4x | |
| $0.20B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.8x | |
| $0.15B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $3444.39B | 35.8x | 23.3x | 12.8x |
OSPN Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.49 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $5.44 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$13.50
Intrinsic Value
$16.01
Current Price
-15.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.49 = 33.51
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
33.51 × 5.44 = 182.20
Step 3: Take square root
√182.20 = 13.50
Graham Number Result:
$13.50
OSPN Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.49 × (8.5 + 2 × 49.4%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.49
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y49.4%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$159.87
Intrinsic Value
$16.01
Current Price
+898.8%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 49.4%
OSPN Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.49
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 5Y49.4%
5-year earnings growth
49.4%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.49 × 49.4% = $73.61
$73.61
Fair Value
$16.01
Current Price
+359.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
10.7x
Current P/E
49.4%
Growth Rate
0.22
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).