Complete AIP Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
AIP DCF Analysis
AIP (Arteris, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.4M | $53.7M | $57.7M | $65.5M | $73.5M | $81.5M | $89.5M | $97.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 6.5% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% |
| EBIT | $-28.9M | $-35.1M | $-31.6M | $3.3M | $3.7M | $4.1M | $4.5M | $4.9M |
| EBIT Margin % | -57.3% | -65.5% | -54.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-21.6M | $-26.4M | $-23.7M | $2.5M | $2.8M | $3.1M | $3.4M | $3.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -43.0% | -49.1% | -41.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $1.1M | $1.5M | $324.0K | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| Depreciation | $2.1M | $3.1M | $3.4M | $3.4M | $3.8M | $4.3M | $4.7M | $5.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-26.7M | $-25.4M | $-2.2M | $-1.3M | $-1.1M | $-1.0M | $-884.1K | $-769.9K |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -53.0% | -47.4% | -3.9% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $6.1M | $624.5K | $-18.4M | $5.9M | $6.4M | $6.9M | $7.4M | $8.0M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -89.8% | -3051.5% | 131.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 12.1% | 1.2% | -31.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.907 | 0.822 | 0.745 | 0.675 | 0.612 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $5.3M | $5.3M | $5.2M | $5.0M | $4.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $5.3M | $10.6M | $15.7M | $20.8M | $25.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.37 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.4% |
| Total Debt | $6.0M |
| Market Cap | $327.0M |
| Total Capital | $333.0M |
| Debt Weighting | 1.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.2% |
| WACC | 10.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $8.0M |
| Terminal Value | $105.0M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $64.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $25.7M |
| Net Debt | $-7.7M |
| Equity Value | $97.6M |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.9M |
| Implied Share Price | $3 |
| Current Share Price | $8 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -67.8% |
Valuation Summary
$2.51
Implied Price
$7.79
Current Price
-67.8%
Upside/Downside
10.3%
WACC
AIP Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-21.23
-372.5%
Peer Median: 26.8x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 9.4x
P/S Ratio
$3.66
-53.0%
Peer Median: 2.5x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AIP's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | AIP Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -9.8x | 26.8x | 20.8x | -136.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 9.4x | 13.5x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 5.3x | 2.5x | 3.8x | 112.8% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.40B | 19.3x | 9.0x | 3.7x | |
| $1.29B | 26.8x | 22.2x | 4.8x | |
| $0.61B | 10.6x | 9.4x | 2.5x | |
| $0.36B | 32.5x | 3.6x | 0.8x | |
| $0.33B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 5.3x | |
| $0.20B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 1.8x | |
| $0.16B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.0x | |
| $0.14B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 2.4x | |
| $3429.60B | 35.6x | 23.2x | 12.7x |