Complete AISP Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
AISP DCF Analysis
AISP (Airship AI Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.5M | $12.3M | $23.1M | $28.8M | $36.0M | $45.0M | $56.3M | $70.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -15.5% | 87.4% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-2.8M | $-6.6M | $-3.5M | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.3M | $2.8M | $3.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -19.4% | -54.0% | -15.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 18.8% | 19.4% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 21.3% |
| NOPAT | $-2.1M | $-6.6M | $-2.6M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.8M | $2.2M | $2.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -14.6% | -54.0% | -11.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $0 | $3 | $0 | $288.1K | $360.2K | $450.2K | $562.7K | $703.4K |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $532.1K | $611.4K | $224.6K | $922.3K | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.3M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.7% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Change in NWC | $-1.3M | $-2.1M | $13.2M | $-1.2M | $-1.2M | $-1.2M | $-1.2M | $-1.2M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -8.6% | -17.4% | 57.2% | -4.3% | -3.4% | -2.8% | -2.2% | -1.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-332.6K | $-3.9M | $-15.6M | $3.0M | $3.5M | $4.0M | $4.7M | $5.6M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -1070.7% | -300.3% | 119.5% | 14.4% | 15.7% | 16.9% | 18.0% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -2.3% | -31.7% | -67.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.946 | 0.896 | 0.848 | 0.802 | 0.759 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $2.9M | $3.1M | $3.4M | $3.8M | $4.2M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $2.9M | $6.0M | $9.4M | $13.2M | $17.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.0% |
| Tax Rate | 18.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.30 |
| Cost of Equity | 5.8% |
| Total Debt | $943.7M |
| Market Cap | $155.7M |
| Total Capital | $1.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 85.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 14.2% |
| WACC | 5.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $5.6M |
| Terminal Value | $179.7M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $136.4M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $17.4M |
| Net Debt | $932.3M |
| Equity Value | $-778.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $-32 |
| Current Share Price | $5 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -747.5% |
Valuation Summary
$-31.66
Implied Price
$4.89
Current Price
-747.5%
Upside/Downside
5.7%
WACC
AISP Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
610.05 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$610.05
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$14946.12
Intrinsic Value
$4.89
Current Price
+305546.6%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
AISP Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$610.05
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$610.05 × 10.0% = $6100.46
$6100.46
Fair Value
$4.89
Current Price
+124653.7%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
0.0x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
0.00
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).