Complete RPD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
RPD DCF Analysis
RPD (Rapid7, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $685.1M | $777.7M | $844.0M | $979.6M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 13.5% | 8.5% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.5% |
| EBIT | $-111.6M | $-80.7M | $35.0M | $49.0M | $56.1M | $63.4M | $70.8M | $78.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -16.3% | -10.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 38.4% | 27.7% | 27.4% | 27.1% | 26.9% | 26.6% |
| NOPAT | $-83.7M | $-60.5M | $21.6M | $35.4M | $40.7M | $46.2M | $51.8M | $57.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -12.2% | -7.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $37.5M | $20.2M | $3.4M | $33.0M | $35.9M | $38.6M | $40.9M | $43.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| Depreciation | $41.0M | $45.9M | $44.9M | $56.2M | $64.3M | $72.7M | $81.2M | $89.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Change in NWC | $15.0M | $85.6M | $91.2M | $10.7M | $9.8M | $8.9M | $7.9M | $7.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 2.2% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-95.2M | $-120.5M | $-28.2M | $47.9M | $59.3M | $71.5M | $84.2M | $97.3M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -26.6% | 76.6% | 269.9% | 23.8% | 20.5% | 17.8% | 15.6% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -13.9% | -15.5% | -3.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.933 | 0.870 | 0.811 | 0.756 | 0.705 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $44.7M | $51.6M | $58.0M | $63.7M | $68.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $44.7M | $96.3M | $154.2M | $217.9M | $286.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 27.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.37% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.02 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.8% |
| Total Debt | $1.0B |
| Market Cap | $1.5B |
| Total Capital | $2.5B |
| Debt Weighting | 40.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 59.4% |
| WACC | 7.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $97.3M |
| Terminal Value | $2.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.5B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $286.5M |
| Net Debt | $683.5M |
| Equity Value | $1.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 63.2M |
| Implied Share Price | $17 |
| Current Share Price | $23 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -25.6% |
Valuation Summary
$17.23
Implied Price
$23.15
Current Price
-25.6%
Upside/Downside
7.2%
WACC
RPD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$14.27
-38.4%
Peer Median: 36.1x
EV/EBITDA
$20.66
-10.7%
Peer Median: 18.7x
P/S Ratio
$44.79
+93.5%
Peer Median: 3.4x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for RPD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | RPD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 58.6x | 36.1x | 39.0x | 62.2% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.5x | 18.7x | 17.3x | 63.5% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 1.8x | 3.4x | 4.2x | -48.3% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.73B | 50.3x | 17.4x | 3.4x | |
| $2.36B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.7x | |
| $2.12B | 15.7x | 7.2x | 1.2x | |
| $1.53B | 93.5x | 18.7x | 3.3x | |
| $1.49B | 58.6x | 30.5x | 1.8x | |
| $1.45B | 20.0x | 9.2x | 3.8x | |
| $1.28B | 26.7x | 22.2x | 4.8x | |
| $0.63B | 11.0x | 9.8x | 2.6x | |
| $3477.31B | 36.1x | 23.5x | 12.9x |
RPD Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.40 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $0.28 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$1.58
Intrinsic Value
$23.15
Current Price
-93.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.40 = 8.89
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
8.89 × 0.28 = 2.49
Step 3: Take square root
√2.49 = 1.58
Graham Number Result:
$1.58
RPD Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.40 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.40
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$9.68
Intrinsic Value
$23.15
Current Price
-58.2%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
RPD Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.40
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.40 × 10.0% = $3.95
$3.95
Fair Value
$23.15
Current Price
-82.9%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
58.6x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
5.86
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).