Complete NABL Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
NABL DCF Analysis
NABL (N-able, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $371.8M | $421.9M | $466.1M | $518.1M | $570.0M | $621.5M | $671.9M | $721.1M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 13.5% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% |
| EBIT | $47.4M | $70.3M | $82.4M | $81.3M | $90.0M | $98.8M | $107.5M | $116.1M |
| EBIT Margin % | 12.7% | 16.7% | 17.7% | 15.7% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| Tax Rate % | 45.1% | 47.2% | 43.0% | 47.0% | 44.8% | 42.6% | 40.4% | 38.2% |
| NOPAT | $26.0M | $37.1M | $47.0M | $43.1M | $49.7M | $56.7M | $64.0M | $71.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| Capex | $21.0M | $22.3M | $17.6M | $31.2M | $32.6M | $33.8M | $34.7M | $35.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| Depreciation | $24.4M | $20.1M | $25.7M | $29.1M | $32.0M | $34.9M | $37.7M | $40.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Change in NWC | $32.2M | $50.7M | $-109.2M | $4.6M | $4.1M | $3.5M | $3.1M | $2.6M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 8.7% | 12.0% | -23.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-2.8M | $-15.9M | $164.4M | $36.4M | $45.0M | $54.3M | $64.0M | $74.2M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -471.3% | 1137.0% | -77.9% | 23.8% | 20.5% | 18.0% | 15.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -0.7% | -3.8% | 35.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.3% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.940 | 0.883 | 0.830 | 0.780 | 0.733 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $34.2M | $39.8M | $45.1M | $50.0M | $54.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $34.2M | $74.0M | $119.0M | $169.0M | $223.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.9% |
| Tax Rate | 47.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.40% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.61 |
| Cost of Equity | 7.0% |
| Total Debt | $369.2M |
| Market Cap | $1.5B |
| Total Capital | $1.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 19.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 80.7% |
| WACC | 6.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $74.2M |
| Terminal Value | $2.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $223.4M |
| Net Debt | $284.0M |
| Equity Value | $1.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 188.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $7 |
| Current Share Price | $8 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -10.9% |
Valuation Summary
$7.28
Implied Price
$8.18
Current Price
-10.9%
Upside/Downside
6.4%
WACC
NABL Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 8 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$3.16
-61.4%
Peer Median: 36.4x
EV/EBITDA
$9.68
+18.4%
Peer Median: 18.8x
P/S Ratio
$9.42
+15.2%
Peer Median: 3.8x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NABL's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NABL Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 94.2x | 36.4x | 43.5x | 158.9% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.8x | 18.8x | 18.6x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 3.3x | 3.8x | 4.4x | -13.2% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.76B | 50.7x | 17.5x | 3.4x | |
| $2.40B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 3.8x | |
| $2.15B | 15.9x | 7.3x | 1.3x | |
| $1.55B | 94.2x | 18.8x | 3.3x | |
| $1.52B | 60.0x | 31.0x | 1.8x | |
| $1.46B | 20.1x | 9.3x | 3.8x | |
| $1.30B | 27.1x | 22.5x | 4.9x | |
| $3501.02B | 36.4x | 23.7x | 13.0x |
NABL Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.09 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $4.03 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$2.81
Intrinsic Value
$8.18
Current Price
-65.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.09 = 1.95
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
1.95 × 4.03 = 7.87
Step 3: Take square root
√7.87 = 2.81
Graham Number Result:
$2.81
NABL Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.09 × (8.5 + 2 × 523.9%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.09
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y523.9%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$91.69
Intrinsic Value
$8.18
Current Price
+1021.6%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 523.9%
NABL Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.09
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y523.9%
3-year earnings growth
523.9%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.09 × 523.9% = $45.48
$45.48
Fair Value
$8.18
Current Price
+456.3%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
94.2x
Current P/E
523.9%
Growth Rate
0.18
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
NABL Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$2.04
EPV per Share
$8.18
Current Price
-75.1%
Upside/Downside
8.1%
WACC: 8.1% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.2B |
| EPV per Share | $2.04 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 80.7% |
| Debt Weight | 19.3% |
| WACC | 8.1% |