Complete MTSI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
MTSI DCF Analysis
MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $675.2M | $648.4M | $729.6M | $784.4M | $837.5M | $888.5M | $937.2M | $983.4M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -4.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| EBIT | $247.4M | $107.4M | $73.7M | $165.5M | $177.6M | $189.3M | $200.6M | $211.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | 36.6% | 16.6% | 10.1% | 21.1% | 21.2% | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.5% |
| Tax Rate % | 0.0% | 20.5% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 15.7% | 16.7% | 17.7% | 18.8% |
| NOPAT | $247.4M | $85.4M | $61.9M | $141.3M | $149.8M | $157.7M | $165.0M | $171.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 36.6% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 18.0% | 17.9% | 17.7% | 17.6% | 17.5% |
| Capex | $26.5M | $24.7M | $22.4M | $26.8M | $27.2M | $27.4M | $27.5M | $27.4M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Depreciation | $57.2M | $52.2M | $67.2M | $67.3M | $71.8M | $76.2M | $80.4M | $84.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Change in NWC | $287.4M | $-38.2M | $117.2M | $2.7M | $2.3M | $1.9M | $1.6M | $1.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 42.6% | -5.9% | 16.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-9.2M | $151.1M | $-10.6M | $179.2M | $192.2M | $204.6M | $216.3M | $227.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 1734.7% | -107.0% | 1797.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1.4% | 23.3% | -1.4% | 22.8% | 22.9% | 23.0% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.908 | 0.825 | 0.749 | 0.680 | 0.618 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $162.7M | $158.5M | $153.3M | $147.2M | $140.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $162.7M | $321.3M | $474.5M | $621.7M | $762.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 14.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.36 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.4% |
| Total Debt | $487.8M |
| Market Cap | $9.4B |
| Total Capital | $9.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 4.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.1% |
| WACC | 10.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $227.4M |
| Terminal Value | $3.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.9B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $762.3M |
| Net Debt | $341.0M |
| Equity Value | $2.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 73.6M |
| Implied Share Price | $31 |
| Current Share Price | $127 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -75.1% |
Valuation Summary
$31.48
Implied Price
$126.67
Current Price
-75.1%
Upside/Downside
10.1%
WACC
MTSI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-33.64
-126.6%
Peer Median: 29.5x
EV/EBITDA
$25.59
-79.8%
Peer Median: 21.7x
P/S Ratio
$45.34
-64.2%
Peer Median: 4.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MTSI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MTSI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -110.9x | 29.5x | 29.6x | -476.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 111.3x | 21.7x | 20.3x | 412.9% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 11.1x | 4.0x | 6.6x | 179.4% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.31B | 26.7x | 15.2x | 3.0x | |
| $19.61B | 31.2x | 15.6x | 2.9x | |
| $16.99B | 13.5x | 9.3x | 4.0x | |
| $15.61B | 407.2x | 0.0x | 31.8x | |
| $10.65B | 27.3x | 12.5x | 2.7x | |
| $9.42B | 670.0x | 108.8x | 11.1x | |
| $7.36B | 135.7x | 21.7x | 2.0x | |
| $7.12B | 31.1x | 26.0x | 11.0x | |
| $6.38B | 125.0x | 93.6x | 13.1x | |
| $6.04B | 29.5x | 22.0x | 10.0x | |
| $3450.04B | 47.9x | 40.1x | 26.4x |
MTSI Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$11.69
EPV per Share
$126.67
Current Price
-90.8%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC: 8.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.9B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.9B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $11.69 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 95.0% |
| Debt Weight | 5.0% |
| WACC | 8.9% |