Complete LSCC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
LSCC DCF Analysis
LSCC (Lattice Semiconductor Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $660.4M | $737.2M | $509.4M | $506.3M | $503.5M | $501.0M | $498.7M | $496.7M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 11.6% | -30.9% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| EBIT | $187.4M | $214.2M | $34.5M | $108.3M | $108.2M | $108.2M | $108.2M | $108.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 28.4% | 29.1% | 6.8% | 21.4% | 21.5% | 21.6% | 21.7% | 21.8% |
| Tax Rate % | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.7% |
| NOPAT | $184.0M | $214.2M | $34.5M | $107.1M | $104.4M | $101.8M | $99.2M | $96.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 27.9% | 29.1% | 6.8% | 21.2% | 20.7% | 20.3% | 19.9% | 19.5% |
| Capex | $23.3M | $33.3M | $21.0M | $17.3M | $16.3M | $15.4M | $14.6M | $13.8M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Depreciation | $29.3M | $41.2M | $46.3M | $32.3M | $32.1M | $31.9M | $31.8M | $31.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 4.4% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Change in NWC | $56.6M | $18.8M | $-5.3M | $12.7M | $10.1M | $8.1M | $6.4M | $5.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 8.6% | 2.5% | -1.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $133.4M | $203.4M | $65.1M | $109.3M | $110.0M | $110.2M | $110.0M | $109.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 52.4% | -68.0% | 68.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 20.2% | 27.6% | 12.8% | 21.6% | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.1% | 22.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.898 | 0.806 | 0.724 | 0.650 | 0.584 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $98.2M | $88.7M | $79.8M | $71.5M | $63.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $98.2M | $186.9M | $266.7M | $338.3M | $402.2M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.0% |
| Tax Rate | 1.1% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.60 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.4% |
| Total Debt | $15.3M |
| Market Cap | $6.4B |
| Total Capital | $6.4B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.8% |
| WACC | 11.4% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $109.4M |
| Terminal Value | $1.3B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $739.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $402.2M |
| Net Debt | $-121.0M |
| Equity Value | $1.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 138.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $9 |
| Current Share Price | $46 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -80.3% |
Valuation Summary
$9.13
Implied Price
$46.42
Current Price
-80.3%
Upside/Downside
11.4%
WACC
LSCC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$11.55
-75.1%
Peer Median: 31.1x
EV/EBITDA
$10.68
-77.0%
Peer Median: 22.0x
P/S Ratio
$35.43
-23.7%
Peer Median: 10.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for LSCC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | LSCC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 125.0x | 31.1x | 35.8x | 302.0% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 93.6x | 22.0x | 23.4x | 326.3% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 13.1x | 10.0x | 7.4x | 31.0% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15.61B | 407.2x | 0.0x | 31.8x | |
| $10.65B | 27.3x | 12.5x | 2.7x | |
| $9.42B | 670.0x | 108.8x | 11.1x | |
| $7.36B | 135.7x | 21.7x | 2.0x | |
| $7.12B | 31.1x | 26.0x | 11.0x | |
| $6.38B | 125.0x | 93.6x | 13.1x | |
| $6.04B | 29.5x | 22.0x | 10.0x | |
| $5.15B | 16.4x | 10.2x | 2.7x | |
| $4.97B | 62.8x | 31.1x | 6.8x | |
| $4.86B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 21.1x | |
| $3450.04B | 47.9x | 40.1x | 26.4x |
LSCC Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.37 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $5.14 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$6.55
Intrinsic Value
$46.42
Current Price
-85.9%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.37 = 8.35
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
8.35 × 5.14 = 42.94
Step 3: Take square root
√42.94 = 6.55
Graham Number Result:
$6.55
LSCC Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$4.80
EPV per Share
$46.42
Current Price
-89.7%
Upside/Downside
9.2%
WACC: 9.2% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.7B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $4.80 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 99.8% |
| Debt Weight | 0.2% |
| WACC | 9.2% |