Complete ON Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
ON DCF Analysis
ON (ON Semiconductor Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.3B | $8.3B | $7.1B | $7.2B | $7.3B | $7.4B | $7.5B | $7.6B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -0.9% | -14.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| EBIT | $2.4B | $2.5B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| EBIT Margin % | 28.3% | 30.8% | 25.0% | 28.0% | 28.1% | 28.2% | 28.3% | 28.4% |
| Tax Rate % | 19.4% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| NOPAT | $1.9B | $2.2B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| NOPAT Margin % | 22.8% | 26.5% | 21.4% | 24.6% | 24.4% | 24.1% | 23.8% | 23.5% |
| Capex | $1.0B | $1.6B | $694.0M | $832.3M | $802.0M | $771.8M | $741.7M | $712.0M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 12.4% | 19.1% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% |
| Depreciation | $551.8M | $609.5M | $642.9M | $553.8M | $561.7M | $569.0M | $575.6M | $581.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Change in NWC | $1.4B | $60.7M | $1.7B | $26.5M | $21.5M | $17.4M | $14.1M | $11.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 17.2% | 0.7% | 23.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-12.0M | $1.2B | $-224.7M | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 9799.3% | -119.4% | 753.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -0.1% | 14.1% | -3.2% | 20.4% | 20.8% | 21.1% | 21.4% | 21.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.914 | 0.835 | 0.763 | 0.697 | 0.637 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.0B |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $1.3B | $2.6B | $3.8B | $4.9B | $6.0B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 12.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.41% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.39 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.4% |
| Total Debt | $3.4B |
| Market Cap | $17.6B |
| Total Capital | $21.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 16.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 83.9% |
| WACC | 9.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.6B |
| Terminal Value | $24.1B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $15.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $6.0B |
| Net Debt | $675.6M |
| Equity Value | $20.6B |
| Shares Outstanding | 432.7M |
| Implied Share Price | $48 |
| Current Share Price | $42 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +13.3% |
Valuation Summary
$47.68
Implied Price
$42.09
Current Price
+13.3%
Upside/Downside
9.5%
WACC
ON Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$39.73
-5.4%
Peer Median: 26.4x
EV/EBITDA
$46.24
+10.1%
Peer Median: 14.8x
P/S Ratio
$115.97
+176.1%
Peer Median: 7.3x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ON's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ON Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.9x | 26.4x | 25.5x | 5.7% | Fair Value |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0x | 14.8x | 25.9x | -5.7% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 2.6x | 7.3x | 6.6x | -63.8% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52.94B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.2x | |
| $31.76B | 17.4x | 48.5x | 13.3x | |
| $32.00B | 20.8x | 44.0x | 7.3x | |
| $19.81B | 26.7x | 14.8x | 2.9x | |
| $17.55B | 27.9x | 14.0x | 2.6x | |
| $16.13B | 12.8x | 8.8x | 3.8x | |
| $15.11B | 394.2x | 0.0x | 30.8x | |
| $10.29B | 26.4x | 12.1x | 2.6x | |
| $9.11B | 670.0x | 108.8x | 10.8x | |
| $3353.54B | 46.6x | 39.0x | 25.7x |
ON Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.50 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $20.33 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$26.23
Intrinsic Value
$42.09
Current Price
-37.7%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.50 = 33.84
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
33.84 × 20.33 = 688.01
Step 3: Take square root
√688.01 = 26.23
Graham Number Result:
$26.23
ON Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.50 × (8.5 + 2 × 15.8%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.50
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y15.8%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y47.9%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$60.31
Intrinsic Value
$42.09
Current Price
+43.3%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 15.8%
ON Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.50
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y15.8%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y47.9%
5-year earnings growth
15.8%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.50 × 15.8% = $23.76
$23.76
Fair Value
$42.09
Current Price
-43.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
28.0x
Current P/E
15.8%
Growth Rate
1.77
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
ON Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.6 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.6 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$43.86
EPV per Share
$42.09
Current Price
+4.2%
Upside/Downside
8.3%
WACC: 8.3% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.6B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.3% |
| Enterprise Value | $19.0B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $19.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.4B |
| EPV per Share | $43.86 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 84.4% |
| Debt Weight | 15.6% |
| WACC | 8.3% |