Complete ALAB Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
ALAB DCF Analysis
ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $79.9M | $115.8M | $396.3M | $495.4M | $619.2M | $774.0M | $967.5M | $1.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 45.0% | 242.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| EBIT | $-60.2M | $-29.5M | $-116.1M | $24.8M | $31.0M | $38.7M | $48.4M | $60.5M |
| EBIT Margin % | -75.4% | -25.5% | -29.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-45.1M | $-22.1M | $-87.0M | $18.6M | $23.2M | $29.0M | $36.3M | $45.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -56.5% | -19.1% | -22.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $3.9M | $2.8M | $34.2M | $26.2M | $31.1M | $37.0M | $43.9M | $52.1M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.8% | 2.4% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Depreciation | $807.0K | $1.8M | $3.2M | $5.5M | $6.9M | $8.6M | $10.8M | $13.5M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Change in NWC | $0 | $-15.2M | $775.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 0.0% | -13.1% | 195.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-48.2M | $-7.9M | $-893.8M | $-2.1M | $-1.0M | $689.6K | $3.2M | $6.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 83.6% | -11192.0% | 99.8% | 52.5% | 168.6% | 360.0% | 111.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -60.4% | -6.8% | -225.6% | -0.4% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.905 | 0.819 | 0.741 | 0.670 | 0.607 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-1.9M | $-822.5K | $510.9K | $2.1M | $4.1M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-1.9M | $-2.7M | $-2.2M | $-98.3K | $4.0M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.40 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.5% |
| Total Debt | $1.3M |
| Market Cap | $15.6B |
| Total Capital | $15.6B |
| Debt Weighting | 0.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100.0% |
| WACC | 10.5% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $6.7M |
| Terminal Value | $85.8M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $52.0M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $4.0M |
| Net Debt | $-78.3M |
| Equity Value | $134.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 131.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $1 |
| Current Share Price | $95 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -98.9% |
Valuation Summary
$1.02
Implied Price
$94.64
Current Price
-98.9%
Upside/Downside
10.5%
WACC
ALAB Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$6.35
-93.3%
Peer Median: 27.3x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 21.7x
P/S Ratio
$11.87
-87.5%
Peer Median: 4.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for ALAB's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | ALAB Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 407.2x | 27.3x | 27.1x | 1390.4% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 21.7x | 23.4x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 31.8x | 4.0x | 6.5x | 697.3% | Overvalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32.78B | 18.0x | 50.1x | 13.7x | |
| $34.37B | 20.8x | 46.7x | 7.8x | |
| $20.31B | 26.7x | 15.2x | 3.0x | |
| $19.61B | 31.2x | 15.6x | 2.9x | |
| $16.99B | 13.5x | 9.3x | 4.0x | |
| $15.61B | 407.2x | 0.0x | 31.8x | |
| $10.65B | 27.3x | 12.5x | 2.7x | |
| $9.42B | 670.0x | 108.8x | 11.1x | |
| $7.36B | 135.7x | 21.7x | 2.0x | |
| $7.12B | 31.1x | 26.0x | 11.0x | |
| $3450.04B | 47.9x | 40.1x | 26.4x |
ALAB Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.23 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $7.35 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$6.20
Intrinsic Value
$94.64
Current Price
-93.4%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.23 = 5.23
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
5.23 × 7.35 = 38.43
Step 3: Take square root
√38.43 = 6.20
Graham Number Result:
$6.20