Complete FSLR Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
FSLR DCF Analysis
FSLR (First Solar, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B | $3.3B | $4.2B | $4.9B | $5.7B | $6.5B | $7.3B | $8.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 26.7% | 26.7% | 17.4% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% |
| EBIT | $-216.3M | $857.3M | $1.4B | $835.1M | $971.6M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| EBIT Margin % | -8.3% | 25.8% | 33.2% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 17.1% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| Tax Rate % | 50.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 16.6% | 17.4% | 18.3% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| NOPAT | $-108.1M | $799.1M | $1.3B | $696.4M | $802.2M | $911.3M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| NOPAT Margin % | -4.1% | 24.1% | 30.5% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 13.9% |
| Capex | $903.6M | $1.4B | $1.5B | $835.8M | $918.4M | $995.6M | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| Capex / Revenue % | 34.5% | 41.8% | 36.3% | 16.9% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 13.8% |
| Depreciation | $269.7M | $308.0M | $423.5M | $488.0M | $564.5M | $644.1M | $725.9M | $808.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Change in NWC | $289.0M | $575.3M | $-317.1M | $-186.1M | $-172.2M | $-157.2M | $-141.7M | $-126.3M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 11.0% | 17.3% | -7.5% | -3.8% | -3.0% | -2.4% | -1.9% | -1.5% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-1.0B | $-855.0M | $495.6M | $534.8M | $620.5M | $717.1M | $824.1M | $940.8M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 17.1% | 158.0% | 7.9% | 16.0% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 14.2% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -39.4% | -25.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.902 | 0.814 | 0.734 | 0.663 | 0.598 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $482.5M | $505.0M | $526.6M | $546.0M | $562.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $482.5M | $987.5M | $1.5B | $2.1B | $2.6B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.5% |
| Tax Rate | 16.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.46% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.53 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.1% |
| Total Debt | $718.8M |
| Market Cap | $17.0B |
| Total Capital | $17.7B |
| Debt Weighting | 4.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.9% |
| WACC | 10.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $940.8M |
| Terminal Value | $11.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $6.9B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $2.6B |
| Net Debt | $-902.6M |
| Equity Value | $10.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $97 |
| Current Share Price | $158 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -38.7% |
Valuation Summary
$97.05
Implied Price
$158.41
Current Price
-38.7%
Upside/Downside
10.8%
WACC
FSLR Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Energy
P/E Ratio
$314.59
+98.6%
Peer Median: 26.7x
EV/EBITDA
$250.65
+58.2%
Peer Median: 15.6x
P/S Ratio
$158.41
+0.0%
Peer Median: 4.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for FSLR's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | FSLR Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.5x | 26.7x | 26.5x | -49.6% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3x | 15.6x | 23.0x | -40.2% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 4.0x | 4.0x | 6.3x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $53.86B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.3x | |
| $32.78B | 18.0x | 50.1x | 13.7x | |
| $34.37B | 20.8x | 46.7x | 7.8x | |
| $20.31B | 26.7x | 15.2x | 3.0x | |
| $19.61B | 31.2x | 15.6x | 2.9x | |
| $16.99B | 13.5x | 9.3x | 4.0x | |
| $15.61B | 407.2x | 0.0x | 31.8x | |
| $10.65B | 27.3x | 12.5x | 2.7x | |
| $9.42B | 670.0x | 108.8x | 11.1x | |
| $7.36B | 135.7x | 21.7x | 2.0x | |
| $3450.04B | 47.9x | 40.1x | 26.4x |
FSLR Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $11.78 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $74.19 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$140.21
Intrinsic Value
$158.41
Current Price
-11.5%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 11.78 = 264.97
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
264.97 × 74.19 = 19658.80
Step 3: Take square root
√19658.80 = 140.21
Graham Number Result:
$140.21
FSLR Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
11.78 × (8.5 + 2 × 39.9%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$11.78
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y39.9%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$1039.39
Intrinsic Value
$158.41
Current Price
+556.1%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 39.9%
FSLR Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$11.78
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y39.9%
3-year earnings growth
39.9%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$11.78 × 39.9% = $469.65
$469.65
Fair Value
$158.41
Current Price
+196.5%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
13.5x
Current P/E
39.9%
Growth Rate
0.34
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
FSLR Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 1.3 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 1.3 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$133.65
EPV per Share
$158.41
Current Price
-15.6%
Upside/Downside
9.0%
WACC: 9.0% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $1.3B |
| Cost of Capital | 9.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $14.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $14.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $133.65 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 96.0% |
| Debt Weight | 4.0% |
| WACC | 9.0% |