Complete GFS Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 3 different methodologies
GFS DCF Analysis
GFS (GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.1B | $7.4B | $6.8B | $6.9B | $7.0B | $7.1B | $7.2B | $7.3B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -8.8% | -8.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| EBIT | $1.2B | $1.1B | $-214.0M | $608.6M | $627.0M | $644.6M | $661.7M | $678.0M |
| EBIT Margin % | 14.4% | 15.3% | -3.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 5.6% | 6.1% | 25.0% | 17.3% | 18.1% | 18.9% | 19.6% | 20.4% |
| NOPAT | $1.1B | $1.1B | $-160.5M | $503.0M | $513.4M | $523.0M | $531.7M | $539.7M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 13.6% | 14.3% | -2.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Capex | $3.1B | $1.8B | $625.0M | $739.8M | $716.0M | $691.6M | $667.0M | $642.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 37.7% | 24.4% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% |
| Depreciation | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| D&A / Revenue % | 20.0% | 19.6% | 23.2% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| Change in NWC | $313.0M | $787.0M | $144.0M | $137.7M | $112.2M | $91.3M | $74.1M | $60.1M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 3.9% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-647.5M | $-79.7M | $638.5M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 87.7% | 900.7% | 67.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -8.0% | -1.1% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 18.1% | 18.7% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.906 | 0.821 | 0.745 | 0.675 | 0.612 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $969.5M | $950.0M | $920.3M | $883.5M | $842.0M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $969.5M | $1.9B | $2.8B | $3.7B | $4.6B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Tax Rate | 17.3% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.41% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.54 |
| Cost of Equity | 11.1% |
| Total Debt | $2.3B |
| Market Cap | $19.7B |
| Total Capital | $22.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 10.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 89.5% |
| WACC | 10.3% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $1.4B |
| Terminal Value | $18.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $11.0B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $4.6B |
| Net Debt | $128.0M |
| Equity Value | $15.5B |
| Shares Outstanding | 553.0M |
| Implied Share Price | $28 |
| Current Share Price | $36 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -21.7% |
Valuation Summary
$27.95
Implied Price
$35.68
Current Price
-21.7%
Upside/Downside
10.3%
WACC
GFS Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 10 peer companies in Technology
P/E Ratio
$-8.91
-125.0%
Peer Median: 26.4x
EV/EBITDA
$35.91
+0.6%
Peer Median: 14.8x
P/S Ratio
$88.71
+148.6%
Peer Median: 7.2x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GFS's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GFS Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -105.7x | 26.4x | 25.5x | -500.5% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8x | 14.8x | 25.8x | 0.0% | Fair Value |
| P/S Ratio | 2.9x | 7.2x | 6.3x | -59.8% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52.77B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.2x | |
| $52.77B | 0.0x | 66.5x | 9.2x | |
| $31.69B | 17.4x | 48.4x | 13.3x | |
| $31.81B | 20.8x | 43.8x | 7.2x | |
| $19.73B | 26.7x | 14.8x | 2.9x | |
| $17.50B | 27.8x | 13.9x | 2.6x | |
| $16.23B | 12.9x | 8.9x | 3.8x | |
| $15.05B | 392.8x | 0.0x | 30.7x | |
| $10.28B | 26.4x | 12.1x | 2.6x | |
| $3352.32B | 46.6x | 38.9x | 25.7x |
GFS Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | -0.3 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | -0.3 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$-5.59
EPV per Share
$35.68
Current Price
-115.7%
Upside/Downside
8.6%
WACC: 8.6% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $-0.3B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $-3.1B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $-3.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.6B |
| EPV per Share | $-5.59 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.2% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 89.5% |
| Debt Weight | 10.5% |
| WACC | 8.6% |