Complete AMRC Stock Valuation Analysis

Last updated: July 18, 2025

Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies

AMRC DCF Analysis

AMRC (Ameresco, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations

Financial Projections

Metrics	2022 (Historical)	2023 (Historical)	2024 (Historical)	2025 (Projected)	2026 (Projected)	2027 (Projected)	2028 (Projected)	2029 (Projected)
Revenue	$1.8B	$1.4B	$1.8B	$2.1B	$2.3B	$2.6B	$3.0B	$3.3B
Revenue Growth %	-	-24.7%	28.8%	15.9%	14.3%	12.9%	11.6%	10.4%
EBIT	$133.0M	$82.2M	$108.7M	$132.8M	$154.1M	$176.6M	$200.0M	$224.1M
EBIT Margin %	7.3%	6.0%	6.1%	6.5%	6.6%	6.7%	6.8%	6.9%
Tax Rate %	6.8%	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	3.7%	6.1%	8.4%	10.8%
NOPAT	$124.0M	$82.2M	$108.7M	$131.0M	$148.4M	$165.8M	$183.1M	$199.9M
NOPAT Margin %	6.8%	6.0%	6.1%	6.4%	6.3%	6.3%	6.2%	6.1%
Capex	$327.9M	$551.8M	$438.3M	$347.3M	$377.2M	$404.4M	$428.7M	$449.8M
Capex / Revenue %	18.0%	40.1%	24.8%	16.9%	16.1%	15.3%	14.5%	13.8%
Depreciation	$54.3M	$65.9M	$89.5M	$87.7M	$100.3M	$113.2M	$126.3M	$139.5M
D&A / Revenue %	3.0%	4.8%	5.1%	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%	4.3%
Change in NWC	$24.9M	$37.7M	$185.1M	$45.0M	$41.2M	$37.2M	$33.2M	$29.3M
NWC Change / Revenue %	1.4%	2.7%	10.5%	2.2%	1.8%	1.4%	1.1%	0.9%
Unlevered FCF	$-174.6M	$-441.4M	$-425.2M	$-173.7M	$-169.7M	$-162.6M	$-152.5M	$-139.7M
UFCF % Chg.	-	-152.8%	3.7%	59.2%	2.3%	4.2%	6.2%	8.4%
FCF / Revenue %	-9.6%	-32.1%	-24.0%	-8.5%	-7.2%	-6.1%	-5.2%	-4.3%
Discount Factor	-	-	-	0.912	0.831	0.758	0.691	0.630
Present Value of FCF	-	-	-	$-158.3M	$-141.0M	$-123.2M	$-105.4M	$-88.0M
Sum of PV of UFCF	-	-	-	$-158.3M	$-299.4M	$-422.6M	$-527.9M	$-616.0M

WACC Calculation

Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.

WACC Calculation	Value
Cost of Debt	7.3%
Tax Rate	1.4%
After Tax Cost of Debt	7.3%
Risk Free Rate	4.35%
Market Risk Premium	4.3%
Beta	2.22
Cost of Equity	14.0%
Total Debt	$1.7B
Market Cap	$967.1M
Total Capital	$2.7B
Debt Weighting	63.8%
Equity Weighting	36.2%
WACC	9.7%

Terminal Value

Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.

Terminal Value Calculation	Value
Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%
Final Year FCF	$-139.7M
Terminal Value	$-2.0B
PV of Terminal Value	$-1.3B
Cumulative PV of UFCF	$-616.0M
Net Debt	$1.6B
Equity Value	$-3.5B
Shares Outstanding	53.1M
Implied Share Price	$-65
Current Share Price	$18
Implied Upside/(Downside)	-453.7%

Valuation Summary

$-65.23

Implied Price

$18.44

Current Price

-453.7%

Upside/Downside

9.7%

WACC

AMRC Peer Valuation Analysis

Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples

Peer Valuation Analysis

Fair Value Range Analysis

Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials

P/E Ratio

$20.26

+9.9%

Peer Median: 21.2x

EV/EBITDA

$93.06

+404.7%

Peer Median: 23.7x

P/S Ratio

$29.44

+59.7%

Peer Median: 0.8x

Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for AMRC's business model and current situation.

Multiple Comparison

Multiple	AMRC Current	Peer Median	Peer Average	Premium/Discount	Assessment
P/E Ratio	19.3x	21.2x	38.0x	-9.0%	Fair Value
EV/EBITDA	12.4x	23.7x	18.6x	-47.5%	Undervalued
P/S Ratio	0.5x	0.8x	1.1x	-37.4%	Undervalued

Peer Companies

Click any company to view their valuation

Company	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	EV/EBITDA	P/S Ratio
MYRG MYR Group Inc.	$2.86B	85.4x	26.5x	0.8x
TPC Tutor Perini Corporation	$2.58B	116.8x	24.7x	0.6x
CTRI Centuri Holdings, Inc.	$1.88B	4731.4x	13.0x	0.7x
LMB Limbach Holdings, Inc.	$1.74B	54.0x	33.5x	3.3x
GLDD Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation	$0.76B	10.9x	9.1x	0.9x
AMRC Ameresco, Inc.	$0.97B	19.3x	12.4x	0.5x
BWMN Bowman Consulting Group Ltd.	$0.53B	175.0x	23.7x	1.2x
NWPX Northwest Pipe Company	$0.42B	13.0x	9.9x	0.8x
BBCP Concrete Pumping Holdings, Inc.	$0.36B	21.2x	6.7x	0.9x
MTRX Matrix Service Company	$0.37B	0.0x	0.0x	0.5x
PWR Quanta Services, Inc.	$56.87B	62.2x	27.1x	2.3x

AMRC Graham Number

Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors

Input Data

EPS (TTM)	$0.96	Latest 10-K
Book Value per Share	$19.07	Latest 10-K Balance Sheet
Graham Constant	22.5	Benjamin Graham's formula

Graham Number Result

$20.27

Intrinsic Value

$18.44

Current Price

+9.9%

Upside/Downside

Confidence: High

Conservative value investing approach

Calculation Breakdown

Formula:

√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)

Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS

22.5 × 0.96 = 21.54

Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share

21.54 × 19.07 = 410.70

Step 3: Take square root

√410.70 = 20.27

Graham Number Result:

$20.27

AMRC Graham Intrinsic Value

Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants

Formula Selection

Base-Growth Formula

V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)

Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment

Yield-Adjusted Formula

V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y

Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity

Active Formula: Base-Growth

0.96 × (8.5 + 2 × 2.6%)

Input Data & Growth Assumptions

Current EPS (TTM)$0.96

Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00

Growth Rate Assumption

Historical 5Y2.6%

Financial statements

Custom

Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)

Graham Intrinsic Value Result

$13.11

Intrinsic Value

$18.44

Current Price

-28.9%

Upside/Downside

Base Formula

Growth: 2.6%

AMRC Earnings Power Value (EPV)

Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment

Earnings Normalization

Earnings Component	Amount ($B)	Description
Reported Earnings	0.1	Base earnings from financial statements
Normalized Earnings	0.1	Final normalized earning power

One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses

Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position

EPV Result

$19.26

EPV per Share

$18.44

Current Price

+4.5%

Upside/Downside

Cost of Capital (%)

5.5%

WACC: 5.5% (calculated from market data)

Confidence: High

Normalized earnings approach

EPV Calculation Breakdown

Enterprise Value Calculation

Normalized Earnings	$0.1B
Cost of Capital	5.5%
Enterprise Value	$1.0B

Per Share Value

Enterprise Value	$1.0B
Shares Outstanding	0.1B
EPV per Share	$19.26

WACC Components

Cost of Equity	9.1%
After-Tax Cost of Debt	3.5%
Equity Weight	36.5%
Debt Weight	63.5%
WACC	5.5%