Complete TPC Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
TPC DCF Analysis
TPC (Tutor Perini Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.8B | $3.9B | $4.3B | $4.3B | $4.4B | $4.4B | $4.4B | $4.4B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 2.4% | 11.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| EBIT | $-204.8M | $-114.6M | $-103.8M | $217.2M | $217.9M | $218.5M | $219.1M | $219.7M |
| EBIT Margin % | -5.4% | -3.0% | -2.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 20.7% | 21.2% | 21.6% | 22.0% | 22.4% |
| NOPAT | $-153.6M | $-85.9M | $-77.8M | $172.1M | $171.8M | $171.4M | $170.9M | $170.4M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -4.1% | -2.2% | -1.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Capex | $59.8M | $53.0M | $37.4M | $49.2M | $46.9M | $44.7M | $43.8M | $43.9M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $64.4M | $45.2M | $53.8M | $59.5M | $59.7M | $59.8M | $60.0M | $60.1M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Change in NWC | $-374.1M | $-314.8M | $-442.4M | $-132.3M | $-106.2M | $-85.2M | $-68.3M | $-54.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -9.9% | -8.1% | -10.2% | -3.0% | -2.4% | -1.9% | -1.6% | -1.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $225.1M | $221.2M | $381.0M | $314.6M | $290.7M | $271.7M | $255.4M | $241.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -1.8% | 72.3% | -17.4% | -7.6% | -6.5% | -6.0% | -5.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.902 | 0.814 | 0.735 | 0.663 | 0.599 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $283.9M | $236.7M | $199.7M | $169.4M | $144.5M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $283.9M | $520.7M | $720.4M | $889.8M | $1.0B |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.4% |
| Tax Rate | 20.7% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.43% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.75 |
| Cost of Equity | 12.0% |
| Total Debt | $534.1M |
| Market Cap | $2.6B |
| Total Capital | $3.1B |
| Debt Weighting | 17.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 82.9% |
| WACC | 10.8% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $241.4M |
| Terminal Value | $3.0B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.8B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $1.0B |
| Net Debt | $79.1M |
| Equity Value | $2.7B |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.3M |
| Implied Share Price | $52 |
| Current Share Price | $49 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +6.4% |
Valuation Summary
$52.33
Implied Price
$49.19
Current Price
+6.4%
Upside/Downside
10.8%
WACC
TPC Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-68.33
-238.9%
Peer Median: 32.7x
EV/EBITDA
$26.91
-45.3%
Peer Median: 17.3x
P/S Ratio
$79.64
+61.9%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for TPC's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | TPC Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -23.5x | 32.7x | 38.6x | -172.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.6x | 17.3x | 20.0x | 88.4% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.6x | 0.9x | 1.4x | -38.2% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.06B | 32.7x | 11.6x | 1.0x | |
| $4.68B | 23.0x | 13.2x | 0.7x | |
| $3.51B | 23.2x | 17.3x | 1.2x | |
| $3.05B | 37.0x | 32.6x | 3.5x | |
| $2.90B | 86.6x | 26.8x | 0.9x | |
| $2.59B | 116.8x | 24.7x | 0.6x | |
| $1.83B | 4611.0x | 12.8x | 0.7x | |
| $1.68B | 52.1x | 32.3x | 3.2x | |
| $0.75B | 10.8x | 9.0x | 0.9x | |
| $0.97B | 19.2x | 12.4x | 0.5x | |
| $57.51B | 62.9x | 27.3x | 2.3x |