Complete NWPX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
NWPX DCF Analysis
NWPX (Northwest Pipe Company) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $457.7M | $444.4M | $492.5M | $554.5M | $617.3M | $680.3M | $742.7M | $804.0M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -2.9% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% |
| EBIT | $27.8M | $33.9M | $48.2M | $43.4M | $49.0M | $54.6M | $60.4M | $66.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| Tax Rate % | 24.7% | 28.0% | 19.3% | 24.3% | 24.4% | 24.5% | 24.5% | 24.6% |
| NOPAT | $21.0M | $24.4M | $38.9M | $32.9M | $37.0M | $41.3M | $45.6M | $49.9M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% |
| Capex | $23.2M | $18.3M | $20.8M | $24.8M | $26.3M | $27.5M | $28.5M | $29.3M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Depreciation | $17.1M | $15.8M | $19.1M | $20.6M | $23.0M | $25.3M | $27.6M | $29.9M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Change in NWC | $23.8M | $-11.6M | $11.1M | $11.4M | $10.1M | $8.9M | $7.8M | $6.8M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | 5.2% | -2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-8.9M | $33.5M | $26.2M | $17.3M | $23.6M | $30.2M | $36.9M | $43.7M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 477.7% | -21.9% | -33.9% | 36.5% | 27.8% | 22.3% | 18.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -1.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.929 | 0.863 | 0.802 | 0.745 | 0.692 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $16.1M | $20.4M | $24.2M | $27.5M | $30.3M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $16.1M | $36.4M | $60.6M | $88.1M | $118.4M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 24.3% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 0.91 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.3% |
| Total Debt | $129.9M |
| Market Cap | $417.1M |
| Total Capital | $546.9M |
| Debt Weighting | 23.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 76.3% |
| WACC | 7.6% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $43.7M |
| Terminal Value | $874.2M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $605.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $118.4M |
| Net Debt | $124.9M |
| Equity Value | $598.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 10.1M |
| Implied Share Price | $59 |
| Current Share Price | $42 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +40.9% |
Valuation Summary
$59.49
Implied Price
$42.22
Current Price
+40.9%
Upside/Downside
7.6%
WACC
NWPX Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$68.89
+63.2%
Peer Median: 21.2x
EV/EBITDA
$69.28
+64.1%
Peer Median: 12.4x
P/S Ratio
$43.68
+3.5%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for NWPX's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | NWPX Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.0x | 21.2x | 28.8x | -38.7% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9x | 12.4x | 15.2x | -20.8% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.8x | 0.9x | 1.1x | -3.3% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.88B | 4731.4x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $1.74B | 54.0x | 33.5x | 3.3x | |
| $0.76B | 10.9x | 9.1x | 0.9x | |
| $0.97B | 19.3x | 12.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.53B | 175.0x | 23.7x | 1.2x | |
| $0.42B | 13.0x | 9.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.36B | 21.2x | 6.7x | 0.9x | |
| $0.37B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.34B | 112.4x | 10.1x | 0.4x | |
| $0.36B | 21.2x | 6.7x | 0.9x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |
NWPX Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $3.26 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $37.16 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$52.17
Intrinsic Value
$42.22
Current Price
+23.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 3.26 = 73.24
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
73.24 × 37.16 = 2721.24
Step 3: Take square root
√2721.24 = 52.17
Graham Number Result:
$52.17
NWPX Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
3.26 × (8.5 + 2 × 43.4%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$3.26
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y43.4%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y3.8%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$310.20
Intrinsic Value
$42.22
Current Price
+634.7%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 43.4%
NWPX Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$3.26
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y43.4%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y3.8%
5-year earnings growth
43.4%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$3.26 × 43.4% = $141.27
$141.27
Fair Value
$42.22
Current Price
+234.6%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
13.0x
Current P/E
43.4%
Growth Rate
0.30
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Undervalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
NWPX Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$43.58
EPV per Share
$42.22
Current Price
+3.2%
Upside/Downside
7.8%
WACC: 7.8% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 7.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.4B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.4B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $43.58 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 76.6% |
| Debt Weight | 23.4% |
| WACC | 7.8% |