Complete MYRG Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 4 different methodologies
MYRG DCF Analysis
MYRG (MYR Group Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.0B | $3.6B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.7B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 21.1% | -7.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% |
| EBIT | $114.9M | $129.1M | $54.1M | $182.3M | $196.2M | $209.6M | $222.5M | $234.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 27.0% | 27.2% | 34.9% | 28.8% | 28.4% | 28.0% | 27.6% | 27.3% |
| NOPAT | $83.9M | $94.0M | $35.2M | $129.9M | $140.5M | $150.9M | $161.0M | $170.8M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Capex | $77.1M | $84.7M | $75.9M | $81.8M | $83.6M | $84.9M | $85.6M | $85.8M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Depreciation | $58.2M | $59.1M | $65.2M | $66.8M | $71.9M | $76.8M | $81.5M | $86.0M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Change in NWC | $-26.5M | $55.7M | $-13.3M | $18.3M | $15.8M | $13.5M | $11.5M | $9.7M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.9% | 1.5% | -0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $91.5M | $12.7M | $37.7M | $96.5M | $113.0M | $129.3M | $145.5M | $161.4M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -86.2% | 198.1% | 155.8% | 17.0% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 10.9% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 3.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.916 | 0.839 | 0.768 | 0.703 | 0.644 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $88.4M | $94.7M | $99.3M | $102.3M | $103.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $88.4M | $183.1M | $282.4M | $384.7M | $488.6M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 6.3% |
| Tax Rate | 28.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.17 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.4% |
| Total Debt | $120.0M |
| Market Cap | $2.9B |
| Total Capital | $3.0B |
| Debt Weighting | 4.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.0% |
| WACC | 9.2% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $161.4M |
| Terminal Value | $2.5B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $1.6B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $488.6M |
| Net Debt | $116.5M |
| Equity Value | $2.0B |
| Shares Outstanding | 16.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $119 |
| Current Share Price | $184 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -35.6% |
Valuation Summary
$118.67
Implied Price
$184.30
Current Price
-35.6%
Upside/Downside
9.2%
WACC
MYRG Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$76.03
-58.7%
Peer Median: 35.2x
EV/EBITDA
$124.93
-32.2%
Peer Median: 17.2x
P/S Ratio
$222.20
+20.6%
Peer Median: 1.0x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MYRG's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MYRG Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 85.4x | 35.2x | 42.6x | 142.4% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.5x | 17.2x | 20.1x | 53.5% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.8x | 1.0x | 1.5x | -17.1% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.40B | 56.7x | 14.4x | 1.7x | |
| $4.12B | 33.1x | 11.8x | 1.0x | |
| $4.69B | 23.0x | 13.2x | 0.7x | |
| $3.50B | 23.1x | 17.2x | 1.1x | |
| $2.91B | 35.2x | 30.9x | 3.3x | |
| $2.86B | 85.4x | 26.5x | 0.8x | |
| $2.58B | 116.8x | 24.7x | 0.6x | |
| $1.88B | 4731.4x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $1.74B | 54.0x | 33.5x | 3.3x | |
| $0.76B | 10.9x | 9.1x | 0.9x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |
MYRG Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $2.16 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $36.33 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$41.99
Intrinsic Value
$184.30
Current Price
-77.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 2.16 = 48.53
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
48.53 × 36.33 = 1763.06
Step 3: Take square root
√1763.06 = 41.99
Graham Number Result:
$41.99
MYRG Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.0 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.0 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$20.58
EPV per Share
$184.30
Current Price
-88.8%
Upside/Downside
8.9%
WACC: 8.9% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.0B |
| Cost of Capital | 8.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.3B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.0B |
| EPV per Share | $20.58 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 96.2% |
| Debt Weight | 3.8% |
| WACC | 8.9% |