Complete CTRI Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 5 different methodologies
CTRI DCF Analysis
CTRI (Centuri Holdings, Inc.) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $2.9B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.2B |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 5.0% | -9.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | $81.7M | $-77.6M | $86.8M | $137.9M | $143.5M | $148.8M | $153.7M | $158.3M |
| EBIT Margin % | 3.0% | -2.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 26.8% | 26.6% | 26.5% | 26.3% | 26.1% |
| NOPAT | $61.3M | $-58.2M | $65.1M | $100.9M | $105.3M | $109.4M | $113.3M | $117.0M |
| NOPAT Margin % | 2.2% | -2.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Capex | $129.6M | $106.7M | $99.3M | $132.8M | $131.3M | $129.3M | $126.9M | $124.2M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Depreciation | $169.8M | $162.8M | $156.0M | $162.5M | $169.2M | $175.4M | $181.2M | $186.6M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Change in NWC | $-12.1M | $-45.6M | $-43.3M | $-20.1M | $-16.8M | $-13.9M | $-11.5M | $-9.5M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -0.4% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.3% |
| Unlevered FCF | $113.6M | $43.6M | $165.0M | $150.8M | $159.9M | $169.4M | $179.1M | $188.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -61.6% | 278.6% | -8.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 4.1% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.926 | 0.858 | 0.795 | 0.737 | 0.682 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $139.7M | $137.3M | $134.7M | $131.9M | $128.9M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $139.7M | $276.9M | $411.7M | $543.6M | $672.5M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 26.8% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.15 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.3% |
| Total Debt | $1.0B |
| Market Cap | $1.9B |
| Total Capital | $2.9B |
| Debt Weighting | 34.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 65.1% |
| WACC | 7.9% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $188.9M |
| Terminal Value | $3.6B |
| PV of Terminal Value | $2.4B |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $672.5M |
| Net Debt | $959.6M |
| Equity Value | $2.1B |
| Shares Outstanding | 88.5M |
| Implied Share Price | $24 |
| Current Share Price | $21 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +13.9% |
Valuation Summary
$24.18
Implied Price
$21.22
Current Price
+13.9%
Upside/Downside
7.9%
WACC
CTRI Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Utilities
P/E Ratio
$0.16
-99.3%
Peer Median: 35.2x
EV/EBITDA
$58.30
+174.8%
Peer Median: 23.7x
P/S Ratio
$27.88
+31.4%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for CTRI's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | CTRI Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4731.4x | 35.2x | 39.1x | 13323.5% | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0x | 23.7x | 21.0x | -45.0% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.7x | 0.9x | 1.4x | -23.9% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.69B | 23.0x | 13.2x | 0.7x | |
| $3.50B | 23.1x | 17.2x | 1.1x | |
| $2.91B | 35.2x | 30.9x | 3.3x | |
| $2.86B | 85.4x | 26.5x | 0.8x | |
| $2.58B | 116.8x | 24.7x | 0.6x | |
| $1.88B | 4731.4x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $1.74B | 54.0x | 33.5x | 3.3x | |
| $0.76B | 10.9x | 9.1x | 0.9x | |
| $0.97B | 19.3x | 12.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.53B | 175.0x | 23.7x | 1.2x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |
CTRI Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $0.00 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $6.28 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$0.80
Intrinsic Value
$21.22
Current Price
-96.2%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 0.00 = 0.10
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
0.10 × 6.28 = 0.63
Step 3: Take square root
√0.63 = 0.80
Graham Number Result:
$0.80
CTRI Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
0.00 × (8.5 + 2 × 8.0%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$0.00
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-29T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available.
Graham's formula is designed for growing companies. Use the custom input below with a conservative positive growth estimate (5-10%).
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$0.11
Intrinsic Value
$21.22
Current Price
-99.5%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 8.0%
CTRI Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$0.00
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-29T00:00:00
No positive historical growth rates available. Using custom growth rate slider.
10.0%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$0.00 × 10.0% = $0.04
$0.04
Fair Value
$21.22
Current Price
-99.8%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
4731.4x
Current P/E
10.0%
Growth Rate
473.14
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).