Complete GLDD Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 6 different methodologies
GLDD DCF Analysis
GLDD (Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $648.8M | $589.6M | $762.7M | $814.4M | $864.0M | $911.4M | $956.4M | $998.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | -9.1% | 29.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% |
| EBIT | $-19.9M | $28.2M | $92.8M | $40.7M | $43.2M | $45.6M | $47.8M | $50.2M |
| EBIT Margin % | -3.1% | 4.8% | 12.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 24.1% | 24.0% | 23.6% | 23.7% | 23.8% | 24.0% | 24.1% |
| NOPAT | $-15.0M | $21.4M | $70.5M | $31.1M | $33.0M | $34.7M | $36.3M | $38.1M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -2.3% | 3.6% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $143.0M | $150.8M | $125.1M | $105.8M | $106.6M | $106.8M | $106.5M | $105.7M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 22.0% | 25.6% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.6% |
| Depreciation | $46.3M | $42.5M | $42.7M | $54.1M | $57.4M | $60.6M | $63.6M | $66.4M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Change in NWC | $-150.2M | $24.4M | $520.0K | $4.7M | $4.0M | $3.4M | $2.8M | $2.4M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -23.1% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Unlevered FCF | $38.5M | $-111.3M | $-12.5M | $-25.2M | $-20.2M | $-14.9M | $-9.4M | $-3.5M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | -389.0% | 88.8% | -102.3% | 19.9% | 26.2% | 36.9% | 62.3% |
| FCF / Revenue % | 5.9% | -18.9% | -1.6% | -3.1% | -2.3% | -1.6% | -1.0% | -0.4% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.925 | 0.855 | 0.791 | 0.731 | 0.676 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $-23.3M | $-17.3M | $-11.8M | $-6.9M | $-2.4M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $-23.3M | $-40.6M | $-52.4M | $-59.3M | $-61.7M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 23.6% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.30 |
| Cost of Equity | 10.0% |
| Total Debt | $547.7M |
| Market Cap | $756.0M |
| Total Capital | $1.3B |
| Debt Weighting | 42.0% |
| Equity Weighting | 58.0% |
| WACC | 8.1% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $-3.5M |
| Terminal Value | $-64.4M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $-43.5M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $-61.7M |
| Net Debt | $537.5M |
| Equity Value | $-642.8M |
| Shares Outstanding | 67.8M |
| Implied Share Price | $-9 |
| Current Share Price | $11 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | -185.1% |
Valuation Summary
$-9.47
Implied Price
$11.13
Current Price
-185.1%
Upside/Downside
8.1%
WACC
GLDD Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 11 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$35.90
+222.5%
Peer Median: 35.2x
EV/EBITDA
$49.84
+347.8%
Peer Median: 23.7x
P/S Ratio
$10.35
-7.1%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for GLDD's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | GLDD Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.9x | 35.2x | 37.7x | -69.0% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1x | 23.7x | 19.8x | -61.8% | Undervalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.9x | 0.9x | 1.4x | 7.6% | Fair Value |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.91B | 35.2x | 30.9x | 3.3x | |
| $2.86B | 85.4x | 26.5x | 0.8x | |
| $2.58B | 116.8x | 24.7x | 0.6x | |
| $1.88B | 4731.4x | 13.0x | 0.7x | |
| $1.74B | 54.0x | 33.5x | 3.3x | |
| $0.76B | 10.9x | 9.1x | 0.9x | |
| $0.97B | 19.3x | 12.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.53B | 175.0x | 23.7x | 1.2x | |
| $0.42B | 13.0x | 9.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.36B | 21.2x | 6.7x | 0.9x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |
GLDD Graham Number
Benjamin Graham's conservative valuation formula for defensive investors
Input Data
| EPS (TTM) | $1.02 | Latest 10-K |
| Book Value per Share | $6.62 | Latest 10-K Balance Sheet |
| Graham Constant | 22.5 | Benjamin Graham's formula |
Graham Number Result
$12.31
Intrinsic Value
$11.13
Current Price
+10.6%
Upside/Downside
Confidence: High
Conservative value investing approach
Calculation Breakdown
Formula:
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
Step 1: Multiply constant by EPS
22.5 × 1.02 = 22.91
Step 2: Multiply by Book Value per Share
22.91 × 6.62 = 151.61
Step 3: Take square root
√151.61 = 12.31
Graham Number Result:
$12.31
GLDD Graham Intrinsic Value
Growth-adjusted intrinsic value with two formula variants
Formula Selection
V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g)
Graham's original P/E shortcut for growth, no interest-rate adjustment
V = [EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4] / Y
Graham's 1974 refinement: adds rate-environment sensitivity
Active Formula: Base-Growth
1.02 × (8.5 + 2 × 4.3%)
Input Data & Growth Assumptions
Current EPS (TTM)$1.02
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y4.3%
Financial statements
Historical 5Y0.7%
Financial statements
Custom
%
Enter a positive growth rate estimate (0-50%)
Graham Intrinsic Value Result
$17.33
Intrinsic Value
$11.13
Current Price
+55.7%
Upside/Downside
Base Formula
Growth: 4.3%
GLDD Peter Lynch Fair Value
Growth-based valuation using PEG ratio analysis for growth stocks
Fair Value Calculation
EPS (TTM)$1.02
Latest 10-K • 2024-12-31T00:00:00
Historical 3Y4.3%
3-year earnings growth
Historical 5Y0.7%
5-year earnings growth
4.3%
1%50%
Fair Value Formula: EPS × Growth Rate
$1.02 × 4.3% = $4.34
$4.34
Fair Value
$11.13
Current Price
-61.0%
Upside/Downside
PEG Analysis
10.9x
Current P/E
4.3%
Growth Rate
2.57
PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)
Significantly Overvalued
PEG Ratio Interpretation:
• PEG < 1.0: Undervalued (growth exceeds P/E)
• PEG = 1.0: Fairly valued (ideal Lynch ratio)
• PEG > 1.5: Overvalued (paying premium for growth)
Peter Lynch's Rule:
"The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate." A stock with 15% growth should trade at a P/E of 15 (PEG = 1.0).
GLDD Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Normalized earnings-based valuation for sustainable earning power assessment
Earnings Normalization
| Earnings Component | Amount ($B) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Reported Earnings | 0.1 | Base earnings from financial statements |
| Normalized Earnings | 0.1 | Final normalized earning power |
One-time Items: Remove non-recurring gains/losses
Cyclical Adjustment: Normalize for economic cycle position
EPV Result
$12.50
EPV per Share
$11.13
Current Price
+12.3%
Upside/Downside
6.7%
WACC: 6.7% (calculated from market data)
Confidence: High
Normalized earnings approach
EPV Calculation Breakdown
Enterprise Value Calculation
| Normalized Earnings | $0.1B |
| Cost of Capital | 6.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
Per Share Value
| Enterprise Value | $0.8B |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.1B |
| EPV per Share | $12.50 |
WACC Components
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Equity Weight | 58.0% |
| Debt Weight | 42.0% |
| WACC | 6.7% |