Complete MTRX Stock Valuation Analysis
Comprehensive intrinsic value analysis using 2 different methodologies
MTRX DCF Analysis
MTRX (Matrix Service Company) discounted cash flow analysis with multiple scenarios, growth assumptions, and terminal value calculations
Financial Projections
| Metrics | 2022 (Historical) | 2023 (Historical) | 2024 (Historical) | 2025 (Projected) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Projected) | 2028 (Projected) | 2029 (Projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $707.8M | $795.0M | $728.2M | $709.8M | $693.7M | $679.5M | $667.0M | $655.9M |
| Revenue Growth % | - | 12.3% | -8.4% | -2.5% | -2.3% | -2.0% | -1.8% | -1.7% |
| EBIT | $-87.9M | $-52.9M | $-29.6M | $35.5M | $34.7M | $34.0M | $33.3M | $32.8M |
| EBIT Margin % | -12.4% | -6.7% | -4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax Rate % | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| NOPAT | $-65.9M | $-39.7M | $-22.2M | $26.6M | $26.0M | $25.5M | $25.0M | $24.6M |
| NOPAT Margin % | -9.3% | -5.0% | -3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Capex | $3.3M | $9.0M | $7.0M | $7.1M | $6.9M | $6.8M | $6.7M | $6.6M |
| Capex / Revenue % | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Depreciation | $15.3M | $13.7M | $11.0M | $12.8M | $12.5M | $12.2M | $12.0M | $11.8M |
| D&A / Revenue % | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Change in NWC | $-28.2M | $-34.9M | $-38.2M | $-23.9M | $-18.6M | $-14.6M | $-11.5M | $-9.0M |
| NWC Change / Revenue % | -4.0% | -4.4% | -5.3% | -3.4% | -2.7% | -2.2% | -1.7% | -1.4% |
| Unlevered FCF | $-25.8M | $-74.3K | $20.1M | $56.1M | $50.2M | $45.5M | $41.8M | $38.9M |
| UFCF % Chg. | - | 99.7% | 27123.6% | 179.7% | -10.6% | -9.3% | -8.1% | -7.1% |
| FCF / Revenue % | -3.6% | -0.0% | 2.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Discount Factor | - | - | - | 0.920 | 0.847 | 0.779 | 0.717 | 0.660 |
| Present Value of FCF | - | - | - | $51.7M | $42.5M | $35.5M | $30.0M | $25.6M |
| Sum of PV of UFCF | - | - | - | $51.7M | $94.2M | $129.6M | $159.6M | $185.3M |
WACC Calculation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital used for discounting cash flows.
| WACC Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Cost of Debt | 7.3% |
| Tax Rate | 25.0% |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | 4.35% |
| Market Risk Premium | 4.3% |
| Beta | 1.04 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.9% |
| Total Debt | $22.9M |
| Market Cap | $368.6M |
| Total Capital | $391.5M |
| Debt Weighting | 5.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 94.2% |
| WACC | 8.7% |
Terminal Value
Choose between perpetuity growth or exit multiple methods.
| Terminal Value Calculation | Value |
|---|---|
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% |
| Final Year FCF | $38.9M |
| Terminal Value | $645.9M |
| PV of Terminal Value | $426.3M |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | $185.3M |
| Net Debt | $-92.7M |
| Equity Value | $704.3M |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.4M |
| Implied Share Price | $26 |
| Current Share Price | $13 |
| Implied Upside/(Downside) | +92.7% |
Valuation Summary
$25.72
Implied Price
$13.35
Current Price
+92.7%
Upside/Downside
8.7%
WACC
MTRX Peer Valuation Analysis
Relative valuation based on comparable company trading multiples
Peer Valuation Analysis
Fair Value Range Analysis
Based on median multiples from 9 peer companies in Industrials
P/E Ratio
$-17.16
-228.5%
Peer Median: 21.2x
EV/EBITDA
$0.00
-100.0%
Peer Median: 10.1x
P/S Ratio
$23.42
+75.4%
Peer Median: 0.9x
Interpretation: Each multiple provides a different perspective on fair value. Consider which multiple is most relevant for MTRX's business model and current situation.
Multiple Comparison
| Multiple | MTRX Current | Peer Median | Peer Average | Premium/Discount | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -16.5x | 21.2x | 24.6x | -177.8% | Undervalued |
| EV/EBITDA | Infinityx | 10.1x | 13.2x | Infinity% | Overvalued |
| P/S Ratio | 0.5x | 0.9x | 0.9x | -43.0% | Undervalued |
Peer Companies
Click any company to view their valuation
| Company | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | EV/EBITDA | P/S Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.76B | 10.9x | 9.1x | 0.9x | |
| $0.97B | 19.3x | 12.4x | 0.5x | |
| $0.53B | 175.0x | 23.7x | 1.2x | |
| $0.42B | 13.0x | 9.9x | 0.8x | |
| $0.36B | 21.2x | 6.7x | 0.9x | |
| $0.37B | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.5x | |
| $0.34B | 112.4x | 10.1x | 0.4x | |
| $0.36B | 21.2x | 6.7x | 0.9x | |
| $56.87B | 62.2x | 27.1x | 2.3x |